NASA's CNEOS Sentry system identifies no significant impact risks for 2026, with only two low-probability events from small near-Earth objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ), both under 20 meters diameter and odds below 0.004%—unlikely to produce 100kt TNT-equivalent airbursts given their scale. Historical bolide data from US Government sensors indicate such events, akin to 15-25 meter asteroids entering at cosmic velocities, occur roughly every 20-50 years, implying a 2-5% annual base rate that aligns with traders' 93% "No" consensus backed by real capital. Q1 2026's noted fireball surge yielded maxima around 4kt over Ohio and elsewhere, per NASA reports. Key uncertainties include thousands of undetected small NEOs, per planetary defense experts; a Chelyabinsk-scale undetected bolide remains a tail risk, with ATLAS surveys providing ongoing refinements through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
100kt de météorites en 2026 ?
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's CNEOS Sentry system identifies no significant impact risks for 2026, with only two low-probability events from small near-Earth objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ), both under 20 meters diameter and odds below 0.004%—unlikely to produce 100kt TNT-equivalent airbursts given their scale. Historical bolide data from US Government sensors indicate such events, akin to 15-25 meter asteroids entering at cosmic velocities, occur roughly every 20-50 years, implying a 2-5% annual base rate that aligns with traders' 93% "No" consensus backed by real capital. Q1 2026's noted fireball surge yielded maxima around 4kt over Ohio and elsewhere, per NASA reports. Key uncertainties include thousands of undetected small NEOs, per planetary defense experts; a Chelyabinsk-scale undetected bolide remains a tail risk, with ATLAS surveys providing ongoing refinements through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$6,285Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's CNEOS Sentry system identifies no significant impact risks for 2026, with only two low-probability events from small near-Earth objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ), both under 20 meters diameter and odds below 0.004%—unlikely to produce 100kt TNT-equivalent airbursts given their scale. Historical bolide data from US Government sensors indicate such events, akin to 15-25 meter asteroids entering at cosmic velocities, occur roughly every 20-50 years, implying a 2-5% annual base rate that aligns with traders' 93% "No" consensus backed by real capital. Q1 2026's noted fireball surge yielded maxima around 4kt over Ohio and elsewhere, per NASA reports. Key uncertainties include thousands of undetected small NEOs, per planetary defense experts; a Chelyabinsk-scale undetected bolide remains a tail risk, with ATLAS surveys providing ongoing refinements through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$6,285Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's CNEOS Sentry system identifies no significant impact risks for 2026, with only two low-probability events from small near-Earth objects—(2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ), both under 20 meters diameter and odds below 0.004%—unlikely to produce 100kt TNT-equivalent airbursts given their scale. Historical bolide data from US Government sensors indicate such events, akin to 15-25 meter asteroids entering at cosmic velocities, occur roughly every 20-50 years, implying a 2-5% annual base rate that aligns with traders' 93% "No" consensus backed by real capital. Q1 2026's noted fireball surge yielded maxima around 4kt over Ohio and elsewhere, per NASA reports. Key uncertainties include thousands of undetected small NEOs, per planetary defense experts; a Chelyabinsk-scale undetected bolide remains a tail risk, with ATLAS surveys providing ongoing refinements through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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