Trader consensus heavily favors March 2026 ranking 4th or cooler globally (96.7% implied probability), driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing March 2024 as the hottest on record (+1.68°C anomaly) and 2023 second (+1.42°C), both amplified by El Niño. Forecasts indicate La Niña persistence into 2026, typically cooling equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and global averages by 0.2–0.5°C, per historical precedents like 2021–22. This positions 2026 below recent peaks amid steady anthropogenic warming. Challenges include an improbable rapid El Niño resurgence or accelerated shortwave forcing from reduced aerosols, though ensemble models assign low odds to new records.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
4ème ou moins 96.7%
Le plus chaud 1.7%
3ème le plus chaud 1.0%
2e plus chaud <1%
$195,999 Vol.
$195,999 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
Le plus chaud
2%
2e plus chaud
<1%
3ème le plus chaud
1%
4ème ou moins
97%
4ème ou moins 96.7%
Le plus chaud 1.7%
3ème le plus chaud 1.0%
2e plus chaud <1%
$195,999 Vol.
$195,999 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
Le plus chaud
$65,962 Vol.
2%
2e plus chaud
$50,318 Vol.
<1%
3ème le plus chaud
$50,859 Vol.
1%
4ème ou moins
$28,860 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$195,999Date de fin
Apr 10, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$195,999Date de fin
Apr 10, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors March 2026 ranking 4th or cooler globally (96.7% implied probability), driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing March 2024 as the hottest on record (+1.68°C anomaly) and 2023 second (+1.42°C), both amplified by El Niño. Forecasts indicate La Niña persistence into 2026, typically cooling equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and global averages by 0.2–0.5°C, per historical precedents like 2021–22. This positions 2026 below recent peaks amid steady anthropogenic warming. Challenges include an improbable rapid El Niño resurgence or accelerated shortwave forcing from reduced aerosols, though ensemble models assign low odds to new records.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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