With no confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through late March 2026 per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data—despite moderate unrest at sites like Kanlaon (multiple ash plumes) and Semeru (pyroclastic flows)—traders price zero such events at 37.5% and one at 33.5%, reflecting historical averages of roughly 0–2 VEI ≥4 blasts annually, which eject at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent and produce plumes over 10 km high. Differentiating factors include the rarity of escalation from current low-level activity (VEI 2–3) and inherent forecasting challenges from seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring; Axial Seamount's predicted mid-2026 effusive event likely stays below VEI ≥4 explosivity thresholds. Weekly USGS/Smithsonian reports will flag potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
Combien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
0 38%
1 34%
2 10.9%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Vol.
$638,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
34%
2
11%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
0 38%
1 34%
2 10.9%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Vol.
$638,313 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,221 Vol.
38%
1
$235,619 Vol.
34%
2
$17,860 Vol.
11%
3
$0 Vol.
4%
4
$11,613 Vol.
2%
5+
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.With no confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through late March 2026 per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data—despite moderate unrest at sites like Kanlaon (multiple ash plumes) and Semeru (pyroclastic flows)—traders price zero such events at 37.5% and one at 33.5%, reflecting historical averages of roughly 0–2 VEI ≥4 blasts annually, which eject at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent and produce plumes over 10 km high. Differentiating factors include the rarity of escalation from current low-level activity (VEI 2–3) and inherent forecasting challenges from seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring; Axial Seamount's predicted mid-2026 effusive event likely stays below VEI ≥4 explosivity thresholds. Weekly USGS/Smithsonian reports will flag potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$638,313Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.With no confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through late March 2026 per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data—despite moderate unrest at sites like Kanlaon (multiple ash plumes) and Semeru (pyroclastic flows)—traders price zero such events at 37.5% and one at 33.5%, reflecting historical averages of roughly 0–2 VEI ≥4 blasts annually, which eject at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent and produce plumes over 10 km high. Differentiating factors include the rarity of escalation from current low-level activity (VEI 2–3) and inherent forecasting challenges from seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring; Axial Seamount's predicted mid-2026 effusive event likely stays below VEI ≥4 explosivity thresholds. Weekly USGS/Smithsonian reports will flag potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$638,313Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With no confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions worldwide through late March 2026 per Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program data—despite moderate unrest at sites like Kanlaon (multiple ash plumes) and Semeru (pyroclastic flows)—traders price zero such events at 37.5% and one at 33.5%, reflecting historical averages of roughly 0–2 VEI ≥4 blasts annually, which eject at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent and produce plumes over 10 km high. Differentiating factors include the rarity of escalation from current low-level activity (VEI 2–3) and inherent forecasting challenges from seismic, gas, and deformation monitoring; Axial Seamount's predicted mid-2026 effusive event likely stays below VEI ≥4 explosivity thresholds. Weekly USGS/Smithsonian reports will flag potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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