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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 48%

1 32%

2 12%

5 9.7%

Polymarket
NEW

0 48%

1 32%

2 12%

5 9.7%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$666 Vol.

48%

1

$332 Vol.

32%

2

$454 Vol.

12%

3

$347 Vol.

10%

4

$141 Vol.

4%

5

$311 Vol.

10%

>5

$175 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from March 30 to April 5 at 49% implied probability, aligned with USGS global seismicity baselines of roughly 0.8–1 such events per week under a Poisson distribution, following a recent cluster of four M6.5+ quakes earlier in March—including a 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and 6.5 near Japan on March 26—that elevated prior weekly counts. Current USGS monitoring shows low activity over the past 48 hours, with no foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or strain accumulation on key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire signaling heightened risk. The 32.5% odds for exactly one reflect statistical expectations amid inherent unpredictability, while elevated >5 pricing at 32.3% hedges rare clustering; watch daily USGS catalog updates for shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from March 30 to April 5 at 49% implied probability, aligned with USGS global seismicity baselines of roughly 0.8–1 such events per week under a Poisson distribution, following a recent cluster of four M6.5+ quakes earlier in March—including a 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and 6.5 near Japan on March 26—that elevated prior weekly counts. Current USGS monitoring shows low activity over the past 48 hours, with no foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or strain accumulation on key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire signaling heightened risk. The 32.5% odds for exactly one reflect statistical expectations amid inherent unpredictability, while elevated >5 pricing at 32.3% hedges rare clustering; watch daily USGS catalog updates for shifts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from March 30 to April 5 at 49% implied probability, aligned with USGS global seismicity baselines of roughly 0.8–1 such events per week under a Poisson distribution, following a recent cluster of four M6.5+ quakes earlier in March—including a 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and 6.5 near Japan on March 26—that elevated prior weekly counts. Current USGS monitoring shows low activity over the past 48 hours, with no foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or strain accumulation on key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire signaling heightened risk. The 32.5% odds for exactly one reflect statistical expectations amid inherent unpredictability, while elevated >5 pricing at 32.3% hedges rare clustering; watch daily USGS catalog updates for shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from March 30 to April 5 at 49% implied probability, aligned with USGS global seismicity baselines of roughly 0.8–1 such events per week under a Poisson distribution, following a recent cluster of four M6.5+ quakes earlier in March—including a 7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and 6.5 near Japan on March 26—that elevated prior weekly counts. Current USGS monitoring shows low activity over the past 48 hours, with no foreshock swarms, aftershock sequences, or strain accumulation on key plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire signaling heightened risk. The 32.5% odds for exactly one reflect statistical expectations amid inherent unpredictability, while elevated >5 pricing at 32.3% hedges rare clustering; watch daily USGS catalog updates for shifts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 0 » à 48%, suivi de « 1 » à 32%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 48¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 48% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5? » est « 0 » à 48%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 48% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1 » à 32%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.