The rapid onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA's June 11, 2026 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7 °C and strengthening subsurface heat content, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing the June global temperature anomaly toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. This developing event adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to global means through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. February 2026 already reached 1.18 °C above the 20th-century baseline, while WMO outlooks for 2026–2030 project a 1.3–1.9 °C range with an 86 % chance of surpassing prior records. Model consensus favors continued El Niño intensification into winter 2026–27, keeping near-term monthly anomalies clustered near 1.16–1.18 °C absent unexpected aerosol or volcanic offsets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.3%
$14,426 Vol.
$14,426 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.3%
$14,426 Vol.
$14,426 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$6,227 Vol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$481 Vol.
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,845 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$1,613 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapid onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA's June 11, 2026 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7 °C and strengthening subsurface heat content, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing the June global temperature anomaly toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. This developing event adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to global means through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. February 2026 already reached 1.18 °C above the 20th-century baseline, while WMO outlooks for 2026–2030 project a 1.3–1.9 °C range with an 86 % chance of surpassing prior records. Model consensus favors continued El Niño intensification into winter 2026–27, keeping near-term monthly anomalies clustered near 1.16–1.18 °C absent unexpected aerosol or volcanic offsets.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$14,426Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapid onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA's June 11, 2026 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7 °C and strengthening subsurface heat content, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing the June global temperature anomaly toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. This developing event adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to global means through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. February 2026 already reached 1.18 °C above the 20th-century baseline, while WMO outlooks for 2026–2030 project a 1.3–1.9 °C range with an 86 % chance of surpassing prior records. Model consensus favors continued El Niño intensification into winter 2026–27, keeping near-term monthly anomalies clustered near 1.16–1.18 °C absent unexpected aerosol or volcanic offsets.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,426Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The rapid onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA's June 11, 2026 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies at +0.7 °C and strengthening subsurface heat content, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing the June global temperature anomaly toward the market's leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. This developing event adds roughly 0.1–0.2 °C to global means through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, layered atop record-high ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. February 2026 already reached 1.18 °C above the 20th-century baseline, while WMO outlooks for 2026–2030 project a 1.3–1.9 °C range with an 86 % chance of surpassing prior records. Model consensus favors continued El Niño intensification into winter 2026–27, keeping near-term monthly anomalies clustered near 1.16–1.18 °C absent unexpected aerosol or volcanic offsets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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