Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 95% implied probability that July 2026 ranks as the warmest July on record. A pronounced long-term anthropogenic warming trend, combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C—has elevated global sea surface and land temperatures well above prior baselines. Preliminary analyses from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus indicate sustained high anomalies through the month, consistent with 2026's trajectory toward one of the top few warmest years overall. Final rankings hinge on full global datasets and any late adjustments in observational processing, though only substantial downward revisions or model discrepancies would realistically shift the outcome away from first place.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Le plus chaud 94.4%
3e plus chaud 3.1%
2e plus chaud 2.0%
4e ou moins <1%
$170,434 Vol.
$170,434 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
Le plus chaud
94%
2e plus chaud
2%
3e plus chaud
3%
4e ou moins
1%
Le plus chaud 94.4%
3e plus chaud 3.1%
2e plus chaud 2.0%
4e ou moins <1%
$170,434 Vol.
$170,434 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
Le plus chaud
$85,132 Vol.
94%
2e plus chaud
$34,048 Vol.
2%
3e plus chaud
$35,768 Vol.
3%
4e ou moins
$15,487 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 95% implied probability that July 2026 ranks as the warmest July on record. A pronounced long-term anthropogenic warming trend, combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C—has elevated global sea surface and land temperatures well above prior baselines. Preliminary analyses from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus indicate sustained high anomalies through the month, consistent with 2026's trajectory toward one of the top few warmest years overall. Final rankings hinge on full global datasets and any late adjustments in observational processing, though only substantial downward revisions or model discrepancies would realistically shift the outcome away from first place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$170,434Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 95% implied probability that July 2026 ranks as the warmest July on record. A pronounced long-term anthropogenic warming trend, combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C—has elevated global sea surface and land temperatures well above prior baselines. Preliminary analyses from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus indicate sustained high anomalies through the month, consistent with 2026's trajectory toward one of the top few warmest years overall. Final rankings hinge on full global datasets and any late adjustments in observational processing, though only substantial downward revisions or model discrepancies would realistically shift the outcome away from first place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$170,434Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong scientific consensus supports the market's 95% implied probability that July 2026 ranks as the warmest July on record. A pronounced long-term anthropogenic warming trend, combined with rapidly intensifying El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific—pushing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C—has elevated global sea surface and land temperatures well above prior baselines. Preliminary analyses from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus indicate sustained high anomalies through the month, consistent with 2026's trajectory toward one of the top few warmest years overall. Final rankings hinge on full global datasets and any late adjustments in observational processing, though only substantial downward revisions or model discrepancies would realistically shift the outcome away from first place.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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