Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for a megaquake—defined as a USGS-recorded magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide by June 30—driven by the absence of any qualifying events since market creation in late December 2025, despite a M7.4 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 that fell short and prompted only a minor uptick in long-term Nankai Trough alerts. USGS monitoring of major fault lines, including Cascadia and the Pacific Ring of Fire, shows no unusual seismic swarms or strain accumulation signaling an imminent great earthquake, aligning with historical rates of roughly one M8+ event per year globally but high unpredictability over short windows like the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time data from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program remains the key watchpoint for any shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMéga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Méga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$64,357 Vol.
$64,357 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$64,357 Vol.
$64,357 Vol.
30 juin 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for a megaquake—defined as a USGS-recorded magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide by June 30—driven by the absence of any qualifying events since market creation in late December 2025, despite a M7.4 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 that fell short and prompted only a minor uptick in long-term Nankai Trough alerts. USGS monitoring of major fault lines, including Cascadia and the Pacific Ring of Fire, shows no unusual seismic swarms or strain accumulation signaling an imminent great earthquake, aligning with historical rates of roughly one M8+ event per year globally but high unpredictability over short windows like the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time data from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program remains the key watchpoint for any shifts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$64,357Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for a megaquake—defined as a USGS-recorded magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide by June 30—driven by the absence of any qualifying events since market creation in late December 2025, despite a M7.4 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 that fell short and prompted only a minor uptick in long-term Nankai Trough alerts. USGS monitoring of major fault lines, including Cascadia and the Pacific Ring of Fire, shows no unusual seismic swarms or strain accumulation signaling an imminent great earthquake, aligning with historical rates of roughly one M8+ event per year globally but high unpredictability over short windows like the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time data from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program remains the key watchpoint for any shifts.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$64,357Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 84.5% for a megaquake—defined as a USGS-recorded magnitude 8.0 or higher earthquake worldwide by June 30—driven by the absence of any qualifying events since market creation in late December 2025, despite a M7.4 subduction zone quake off northern Japan on April 20 that fell short and prompted only a minor uptick in long-term Nankai Trough alerts. USGS monitoring of major fault lines, including Cascadia and the Pacific Ring of Fire, shows no unusual seismic swarms or strain accumulation signaling an imminent great earthquake, aligning with historical rates of roughly one M8+ event per year globally but high unpredictability over short windows like the remaining seven weeks. Continuous real-time data from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program remains the key watchpoint for any shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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