Trader consensus prices "No megaquake"—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide by June 30—at 84.5%, reflecting USGS monitoring of routine global seismic activity with no precursory indicators like accelerated strain accumulation on major subduction zones. Recent M7.4 events off Japan (April 20) and Indonesia (April 1) prompted localized alerts, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (80% M9 risk over 30 years), but official assessments deem short-term escalation improbable, with absolute odds around 1%. Historically, M8+ quakes average one per year via random Poisson processes, unpreventable by current science; no 2026 events yet, and May's largest (M5.8) remain minor. Continuous USGS feeds and aftershock analyses will provide key updates through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMéga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Méga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$64,357 Vol.
$64,357 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$64,357 Vol.
$64,357 Vol.
30 juin 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No megaquake"—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide by June 30—at 84.5%, reflecting USGS monitoring of routine global seismic activity with no precursory indicators like accelerated strain accumulation on major subduction zones. Recent M7.4 events off Japan (April 20) and Indonesia (April 1) prompted localized alerts, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (80% M9 risk over 30 years), but official assessments deem short-term escalation improbable, with absolute odds around 1%. Historically, M8+ quakes average one per year via random Poisson processes, unpreventable by current science; no 2026 events yet, and May's largest (M5.8) remain minor. Continuous USGS feeds and aftershock analyses will provide key updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$64,357Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No megaquake"—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide by June 30—at 84.5%, reflecting USGS monitoring of routine global seismic activity with no precursory indicators like accelerated strain accumulation on major subduction zones. Recent M7.4 events off Japan (April 20) and Indonesia (April 1) prompted localized alerts, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (80% M9 risk over 30 years), but official assessments deem short-term escalation improbable, with absolute odds around 1%. Historically, M8+ quakes average one per year via random Poisson processes, unpreventable by current science; no 2026 events yet, and May's largest (M5.8) remain minor. Continuous USGS feeds and aftershock analyses will provide key updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$64,357Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No megaquake"—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide by June 30—at 84.5%, reflecting USGS monitoring of routine global seismic activity with no precursory indicators like accelerated strain accumulation on major subduction zones. Recent M7.4 events off Japan (April 20) and Indonesia (April 1) prompted localized alerts, such as Japan's Nankai Trough (80% M9 risk over 30 years), but official assessments deem short-term escalation improbable, with absolute odds around 1%. Historically, M8+ quakes average one per year via random Poisson processes, unpreventable by current science; no 2026 events yet, and May's largest (M5.8) remain minor. Continuous USGS feeds and aftershock analyses will provide key updates through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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