The March 31 deadline for a megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere worldwide—has passed without any qualifying event recorded in USGS seismic catalogs, driving the market-implied 100% probability for "No." Official monitoring through April 1 shows the largest March 2026 quake at magnitude 6.6 off northern Peru on March 21, far below the threshold, amid a quiet period for great earthquakes that historically occur about once per year on average due to tectonic strain accumulation on major fault systems. Trader consensus reflects this definitive data, backed by real capital; while rare upward revisions to preliminary magnitudes can occur, USGS assessments stabilize quickly, leaving negligible risk of post-deadline changes. Resolution awaits final USGS confirmation, expected imminently.