Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 24 remains tightly contested, with NOAA's Global Forecast System and European model ensembles diverging between upper 60s and low 70s Fahrenheit, driving the near-even odds for 68-69°F (28.5%), 70-71°F (27%), and 74°F or higher (29.5%). Key differentiators include the strength of an offshore high-pressure ridge promoting adiabatic warming versus persistent marine layer clouds trapping cool Pacific air, as monitored by SFO Airport observations. Recent 00Z model runs show GFS leaning warmer at 70-72°F with southerly winds eroding fog by afternoon, while ECMWF holds cooler at 66-68°F amid stratocumulus persistence; historical March diurnal maxima average 62°F but spike 5-10°F under similar ridging, heightening uncertainty ahead of final NWS updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
74°F or higher 50%
68-69°F 29%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 24%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
23%
74°F or higher
30%
74°F or higher 50%
68-69°F 29%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 24%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
4%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
23%
74°F or higher
30%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 24 remains tightly contested, with NOAA's Global Forecast System and European model ensembles diverging between upper 60s and low 70s Fahrenheit, driving the near-even odds for 68-69°F (28.5%), 70-71°F (27%), and 74°F or higher (29.5%). Key differentiators include the strength of an offshore high-pressure ridge promoting adiabatic warming versus persistent marine layer clouds trapping cool Pacific air, as monitored by SFO Airport observations. Recent 00Z model runs show GFS leaning warmer at 70-72°F with southerly winds eroding fog by afternoon, while ECMWF holds cooler at 66-68°F amid stratocumulus persistence; historical March diurnal maxima average 62°F but spike 5-10°F under similar ridging, heightening uncertainty ahead of final NWS updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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