Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17-19°C stems from latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpointing Milan's March 24 high near 18°C, fueled by a building high-pressure ridge drawing mild southerly airflow into the Po Valley. Key differentiators include model divergence on afternoon cloud cover—persistent clear skies enabling peak solar insolation for 19°C, versus scattered clouds capping at 17°C—and urban heat island amplification adding 1-2°C in central Milan. Historical norms average 14°C, but anomalously warm March patterns elevate upper-end odds; traders eye 12Z updates for frontal boundary refinements amid low ensemble spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on March 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 24?
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
18°C 23%
16°C 20%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
14%
16°C
20%
17°C
28%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
15%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
10%
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
18°C 23%
16°C 20%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
14%
16°C
20%
17°C
28%
18°C
28%
19°C
28%
20°C
15%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17-19°C stems from latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpointing Milan's March 24 high near 18°C, fueled by a building high-pressure ridge drawing mild southerly airflow into the Po Valley. Key differentiators include model divergence on afternoon cloud cover—persistent clear skies enabling peak solar insolation for 19°C, versus scattered clouds capping at 17°C—and urban heat island amplification adding 1-2°C in central Milan. Historical norms average 14°C, but anomalously warm March patterns elevate upper-end odds; traders eye 12Z updates for frontal boundary refinements amid low ensemble spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes