Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?
$144,162 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.
If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.
If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
Created At: Feb 16, 2023, 12:00 AM
Volume
$144,162End Date
Dec 31, 2023Created At
Feb 16, 2023, 12:00 AMResolution Source
https://openai.com/Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes 0.50, No 0.50
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes 0.50, No 0.50
$144,162 Vol.
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters when released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.
If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.
If GPT-4 is not released by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.
Volume
$144,162End Date
Dec 31, 2023Created At
Feb 16, 2023, 12:00 AMResolution Source
https://openai.com/Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes 0.50, No 0.50
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes 0.50, No 0.50
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Beware of external links.