Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 84%
February 14 7.3%
February 10 2.2%
February 7 2.1%
$25,648 Vol.
$25,648 Vol.
Released before February 1
$2,484 Vol.
1%
Released before February 1
$2,484 Vol.
1%
February 1
$1,112 Vol.
1%
February 1
$1,112 Vol.
1%
February 2
$1,661 Vol.
1%
February 2
$1,661 Vol.
1%
February 3
$1,288 Vol.
1%
February 3
$1,288 Vol.
1%
February 4
$974 Vol.
<1%
February 4
$974 Vol.
<1%
February 5
$857 Vol.
1%
February 5
$857 Vol.
1%
February 6
$869 Vol.
1%
February 6
$869 Vol.
1%
February 7
$1,253 Vol.
2%
February 7
$1,253 Vol.
2%
February 8
$839 Vol.
1%
February 8
$839 Vol.
1%
February 9
$861 Vol.
2%
February 9
$861 Vol.
2%
February 10
$936 Vol.
2%
February 10
$936 Vol.
2%
February 11
$788 Vol.
2%
February 11
$788 Vol.
2%
February 12
$1,064 Vol.
1%
February 12
$1,064 Vol.
1%
February 13
$929 Vol.
1%
February 13
$929 Vol.
1%
February 14
$1,102 Vol.
7%
February 14
$1,102 Vol.
7%
No release by February 14
$8,630 Vol.
84%
No release by February 14
$8,630 Vol.
84%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 28, 2026, 10:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 84%
February 14 7.3%
February 10 2.2%
February 7 2.1%
$25,648 Vol.
$25,648 Vol.
Released before February 1
1%
February 1
1%
February 2
1%
February 3
1%
February 4
<1%
February 5
1%
February 6
1%
February 7
2%
February 8
1%
February 9
2%
February 10
2%
February 11
2%
February 12
1%
February 13
1%
February 14
7%
No release by February 14
84%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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