Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit__ by end of March?

Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit__ by end of March?

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

Ended: Mar 31

Apr 30

$642,245 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$642,245 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$96,399 Vol.

No

↑ $4.50

$118,763 Vol.

No

↑ $4.25

$65,734 Vol.

No

↑ $4.00

$73,833 Vol.

Yes

↑ $3.75

$0 Vol.

Yes

↑ $3.50

$0 Vol.

Yes

↑ $3.35

$0 Vol.

Yes

↑ $3.25

$0 Vol.

Yes

↓ $3.15

$36,913 Vol.

No

↓ $3.10

$43,650 Vol.

No

↓ $3.05

$176,429 Vol.

No

↓ $3.00

$30,524 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".Escalating Middle East tensions, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, have spiked Brent crude above $106 per barrel and WTI near $102 per barrel by March 31, driving the AAA national average regular gasoline price to $4.018 per gallon and resolving Polymarket thresholds affirmatively for levels up to $4.02. Trader consensus on the platform, backed by over $640,000 in volume, priced in supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and expanded refining margins amid spring demand. Key swing factors included oil flow reductions and 40-50% monthly crude gains. Traders now eye April EIA weekly reports (next April 7), potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and OPEC+ responses for sustained pricing dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".
Volume
$642,245
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".Escalating Middle East tensions, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, have spiked Brent crude above $106 per barrel and WTI near $102 per barrel by March 31, driving the AAA national average regular gasoline price to $4.018 per gallon and resolving Polymarket thresholds affirmatively for levels up to $4.02. Trader consensus on the platform, backed by over $640,000 in volume, priced in supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and expanded refining margins amid spring demand. Key swing factors included oil flow reductions and 40-50% monthly crude gains. Traders now eye April EIA weekly reports (next April 7), potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and OPEC+ responses for sustained pricing dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".
Volume
$642,245
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit__ by end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.00" at 100%, followed by "↑ $3.75" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" has generated $642.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit__ by end of March?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" is "↑ $4.00" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $3.75" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.