Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% "No" probability for any European country expelling an Israeli ambassador by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official declarations naming Israel's envoys persona non grata amid ongoing diplomatic tensions. Spain's March 11 decision to permanently withdraw its own ambassador from Israel—downgrading ties over Gaza operations and Iran-related disputes—highlighted frictions but stopped short of reciprocal expulsion, with no similar escalations from Ireland, Norway, Belgium, or others despite protests like UK rallies calling for such action. Ambassador expulsions remain rare, reserved for espionage or grave breaches, and with under 48 hours left, no governments signal intent. Late-breaking military escalation or ICJ rulings could theoretically prompt a snap response, though structural hurdles and EU coordination needs make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$124,498 Vol.
$124,498 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$124,498 Vol.
$124,498 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% "No" probability for any European country expelling an Israeli ambassador by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official declarations naming Israel's envoys persona non grata amid ongoing diplomatic tensions. Spain's March 11 decision to permanently withdraw its own ambassador from Israel—downgrading ties over Gaza operations and Iran-related disputes—highlighted frictions but stopped short of reciprocal expulsion, with no similar escalations from Ireland, Norway, Belgium, or others despite protests like UK rallies calling for such action. Ambassador expulsions remain rare, reserved for espionage or grave breaches, and with under 48 hours left, no governments signal intent. Late-breaking military escalation or ICJ rulings could theoretically prompt a snap response, though structural hurdles and EU coordination needs make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ET
Volume
$124,498End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% "No" probability for any European country expelling an Israeli ambassador by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official declarations naming Israel's envoys persona non grata amid ongoing diplomatic tensions. Spain's March 11 decision to permanently withdraw its own ambassador from Israel—downgrading ties over Gaza operations and Iran-related disputes—highlighted frictions but stopped short of reciprocal expulsion, with no similar escalations from Ireland, Norway, Belgium, or others despite protests like UK rallies calling for such action. Ambassador expulsions remain rare, reserved for espionage or grave breaches, and with under 48 hours left, no governments signal intent. Late-breaking military escalation or ICJ rulings could theoretically prompt a snap response, though structural hurdles and EU coordination needs make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,498End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% "No" probability for any European country expelling an Israeli ambassador by March 31, driven by the complete absence of official declarations naming Israel's envoys persona non grata amid ongoing diplomatic tensions. Spain's March 11 decision to permanently withdraw its own ambassador from Israel—downgrading ties over Gaza operations and Iran-related disputes—highlighted frictions but stopped short of reciprocal expulsion, with no similar escalations from Ireland, Norway, Belgium, or others despite protests like UK rallies calling for such action. Ambassador expulsions remain rare, reserved for espionage or grave breaches, and with under 48 hours left, no governments signal intent. Late-breaking military escalation or ICJ rulings could theoretically prompt a snap response, though structural hurdles and EU coordination needs make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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