Trader consensus heavily favors talks between President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (99%) and UN Special Envoy on Climate Action Mark Carney (100%), reflecting scheduled diplomacy amid the ongoing Iran conflict, where U.S. strikes triggered Iranian retaliation claims including downed pilots. High odds also price in discussions with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (76%), French President Emmanuel Macron (81%), and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (70%), driven by recent White House statements on prior engagements and alliance coordination needs post-Trump's April 1 national address signaling war objectives nearly met. Lower probabilities for adversaries like Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian (8%) and Kim Jong Un (4%) highlight escalation barriers, with resolution hinging on credible reports of phone, video, or in-person verbal interactions by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$52,251 Vol.

Mark Rutte
98%

Mark Carney
85%

Keir Starmer
75%

Emmanuel Macron
72%

Mohammed bin Salman
66%

Friedrich Merz
60%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
56%

Elon Musk
45%

Vladimir Putin
41%

Ursula von der Leyen
38%

Xi Jinping
34%

Maria Corina Machado
30%

Lula da Silva
24%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
13%

Reza Pahlavi
10%

Masoud Pezeshkian
5%

Kim Jong Un
4%

Nicolás Maduro
3%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%
$52,251 Vol.

Mark Rutte
98%

Mark Carney
85%

Keir Starmer
75%

Emmanuel Macron
72%

Mohammed bin Salman
66%

Friedrich Merz
60%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
56%

Elon Musk
45%

Vladimir Putin
41%

Ursula von der Leyen
38%

Xi Jinping
34%

Maria Corina Machado
30%

Lula da Silva
24%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
13%

Reza Pahlavi
10%

Masoud Pezeshkian
5%

Kim Jong Un
4%

Nicolás Maduro
3%

Yoon Suk Yeol
1%
A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors talks between President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (99%) and UN Special Envoy on Climate Action Mark Carney (100%), reflecting scheduled diplomacy amid the ongoing Iran conflict, where U.S. strikes triggered Iranian retaliation claims including downed pilots. High odds also price in discussions with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (76%), French President Emmanuel Macron (81%), and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (70%), driven by recent White House statements on prior engagements and alliance coordination needs post-Trump's April 1 national address signaling war objectives nearly met. Lower probabilities for adversaries like Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian (8%) and Kim Jong Un (4%) highlight escalation barriers, with resolution hinging on credible reports of phone, video, or in-person verbal interactions by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions