Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Name: Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Start: 2025-11-24T20:37:21.005Z
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 59%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.1%

Connie Chan 19.1%

Jingchao Xiong <1%

$208,983 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026

Scott Wiener

$0 Vol.

54%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$0 Vol.

24%

Connie Chan

$200,431 Vol.

19%

Jingchao Xiong

$0 Vol.

Darren Helton

$0 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$8,552 Vol.

<1%

Cole Bettles

$0 Vol.

<1%

Scott Wiener 59%

Saikat Chakrabarti 24.1%

Connie Chan 19.1%

Jingchao Xiong <1%

$208,983 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026

Scott Wiener

$0 Vol.

54%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$0 Vol.

24%

Connie Chan

$200,431 Vol.

19%

Jingchao Xiong

$0 Vol.

Darren Helton

$0 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$8,552 Vol.

<1%

Cole Bettles

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Scott Wiener holds a trader consensus lead at 52.5% implied probability to finish first in California's CA-11 top-two primary, driven by his swift campaign launch days after Nancy Pelosi's November 18 announcement declining to seek re-election in 2026. As a sitting state senator whose district overlaps much of CA-11, Wiener benefits from incumbency advantages, early endorsements from Bay Area Democratic officials, and superior initial fundraising exceeding rivals. Progressive firebrand Saikat Chakrabarti, former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, trails at 24.1% with grassroots momentum, while San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan sits at 19.1% leveraging local name recognition. Recent polls reflect Wiener's edge in this Democratic stronghold, though the field remains fluid ahead of the June 2026 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC

Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?

90%

Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election?

95%

Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?

97%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 54%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" has generated $209K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" is "Scott Wiener" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $209K traded on “Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 54¢ for "Scott Wiener" in the "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 54% chance that "Scott Wiener" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 54¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 46¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 2, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" market has a growing discussion of 3 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

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Comments (3)

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