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Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 95.4%

Judy Shelton 1.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.2%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$14,600,977 Vol.

Kevin Warsh 95.4%

Judy Shelton 1.8%

Michelle Bowman 1.2%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$14,600,977 Vol.

Kevin Warsh

$2,544,342 Vol.

95%

Judy Shelton

$6,694,423 Vol.

2%

Kevin Hassett

$514,271 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$472,838 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$718,234 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$475,385 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$1,360,719 Vol.

<1%

Rick Reider

$522,498 Vol.

1%

Michelle Bowman

$1,299,600 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, has driven trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability of Senate confirmation before Jerome Powell's term expires May 15. Warsh's experience as a former Fed governor from 2006-2011 and endorsements from Republican senators bolster his position amid GOP Senate majority control. Stalled progress in the Senate Banking Committee stems from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent letter criticizes Warsh's past record. Realistic challenges include unresolved probe escalation, additional GOP defections, or procedural delays preventing floor vote in time.

President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, has driven trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability of Senate confirmation before Jerome Powell's term expires May 15. Warsh's experience as a former Fed governor from 2006-2011 and endorsements from Republican senators bolster his position amid GOP Senate majority control. Stalled progress in the Senate Banking Committee stems from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent letter criticizes Warsh's past record. Realistic challenges include unresolved probe escalation, additional GOP defections, or procedural delays preventing floor vote in time.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, has driven trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability of Senate confirmation before Jerome Powell's term expires May 15. Warsh's experience as a former Fed governor from 2006-2011 and endorsements from Republican senators bolster his position amid GOP Senate majority control. Stalled progress in the Senate Banking Committee stems from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent letter criticizes Warsh's past record. Realistic challenges include unresolved probe escalation, additional GOP defections, or procedural delays preventing floor vote in time.

President Trump's formal nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, following his January announcement, has driven trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability of Senate confirmation before Jerome Powell's term expires May 15. Warsh's experience as a former Fed governor from 2006-2011 and endorsements from Republican senators bolster his position amid GOP Senate majority control. Stalled progress in the Senate Banking Committee stems from Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren's recent letter criticizes Warsh's past record. Realistic challenges include unresolved probe escalation, additional GOP defections, or procedural delays preventing floor vote in time.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

77%
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Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

35%
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Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

50%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 95%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" has generated $14.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" is "Kevin Warsh" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.