California's top-two primary system for the 2026 gubernatorial election, set for March 3, 2026, advances the two highest vote-getters to the general regardless of party, creating opportunities for a Republican to sneak into the runoff amid a fragmented Democratic field. Incumbent Gavin Newsom is term-limited, leaving Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis atop early UC Berkeley polling at 14% among likely voters, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco at 9% leading Republicans, and former Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins and Rep. Katie Porter trailing in single digits. No major developments in the past 30 days, but post-2024 election endorsements from Newsom or additional high-profile entrants like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa could reshape the race before November 2025 filing deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in this early, wide-open contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$167,358 Vol.
Elaine Culotti
94%
Eric Swalwell
72%
Steve Hilton
56%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
27%
Matt Mahan
19%
Katie Porter
20%
Ché Ahn
11%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
6%
Tony Thurmond
5%
Ethan Agarwal
5%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Sharifah Hardie
4%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
12%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Raji Rab
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Butch Ware
2%
Ramsey Robinson
1%
Brandon Jones
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
Thunder Parley
1%
Zoltan Istvan
1%
David Thelen
1%
Sophia Brink
1%
$167,358 Vol.
Elaine Culotti
94%
Eric Swalwell
72%
Steve Hilton
56%
Chad Bianco
36%
Tom Steyer
27%
Matt Mahan
19%
Katie Porter
20%
Ché Ahn
11%
Xavier Becerra
8%
Betty Yee
6%
Tony Thurmond
5%
Ethan Agarwal
5%
Ryan Tillman
5%
Sharifah Hardie
4%
Jimmy Parker
4%
Dylan Colbert
3%
Daniel Mercuri
3%
Nicki Minaj
3%
Derek Grasty
3%
Antonio Villaraigosa
3%
Leo Zacky
2%
David Serpa
2%
Javen Allen
12%
Leonard Jackson
2%
Raji Rab
2%
Carolina Buhler
2%
Kyle Langford
2%
Nicholas Thompson
2%
Butch Ware
2%
Ramsey Robinson
1%
Brandon Jones
1%
Ian Calderon
1%
Thunder Parley
1%
Zoltan Istvan
1%
David Thelen
1%
Sophia Brink
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...California's top-two primary system for the 2026 gubernatorial election, set for March 3, 2026, advances the two highest vote-getters to the general regardless of party, creating opportunities for a Republican to sneak into the runoff amid a fragmented Democratic field. Incumbent Gavin Newsom is term-limited, leaving Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis atop early UC Berkeley polling at 14% among likely voters, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco at 9% leading Republicans, and former Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins and Rep. Katie Porter trailing in single digits. No major developments in the past 30 days, but post-2024 election endorsements from Newsom or additional high-profile entrants like former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa could reshape the race before November 2025 filing deadlines. Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in this early, wide-open contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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