Market icon
Geopolitics·Israel X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Israel X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$76,203 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$76,203 Vol.

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$34,343 Vol.

27%

UAE

$13,991 Vol.

22%

Qatar

$272 Vol.

7%

Kuwait

$563 Vol.

7%

UK

$15,593 Vol.

7%

Bahrain

$356 Vol.

6%

Any E.U. Country

$2,391 Vol.

6%

Jordan

$868 Vol.

6%

France

$3,676 Vol.

5%

Turkey

$240 Vol.

5%

Germany

$1,392 Vol.

4%

Oman

$249 Vol.

4%

Canada

$2,270 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid the ongoing proxy wars involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks from Yemen. Both nations downplayed the exchanges to signal de-escalation, with Iran launching no major counterstrikes and Israel focusing on limited targets outside nuclear facilities. The U.S., pre-notified of Israel's operation, has provided defensive support but avoided direct involvement, while Gulf states prioritize diplomacy and sanctions. Traders monitor the November 5 U.S. presidential election for potential shifts in American policy, alongside any ceasefire talks or further escalations in Gaza and Lebanon that could prompt additional actions by April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$76,203
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid the ongoing proxy wars involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks from Yemen. Both nations downplayed the exchanges to signal de-escalation, with Iran launching no major counterstrikes and Israel focusing on limited targets outside nuclear facilities. The U.S., pre-notified of Israel's operation, has provided defensive support but avoided direct involvement, while Gulf states prioritize diplomacy and sanctions. Traders monitor the November 5 U.S. presidential election for potential shifts in American policy, alongside any ceasefire talks or further escalations in Gaza and Lebanon that could prompt additional actions by April 30.

Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeting Iranian missile production sites marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage amid the ongoing proxy wars involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks from Yemen. Both nations downplayed the exchanges to signal de-escalation, with Iran launching no major counterstrikes and Israel focusing on limited targets outside nuclear facilities. The U.S., pre-notified of Israel's operation, has provided defensive support but avoided direct involvement, while Gulf states prioritize diplomacy and sanctions. Traders monitor the November 5 U.S. presidential election for potential shifts in American policy, alongside any ceasefire talks or further escalations in Gaza and Lebanon that could prompt additional actions by April 30.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Saudi Arabia" at 27%, followed by "UAE" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" has generated $76.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is "Saudi Arabia" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "UAE" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.