The US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting airstrikes against Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and defense infrastructure, with March 29 reports detailing strikes on four key sites and 29 others amid a conflict now exceeding one month since late February. Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia wounded over a dozen troops, prompting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to consider direct strikes if energy facilities face further threats. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive actions targeting Iranian missile capabilities earlier in March. Traders weigh escalation risks against de-escalation signals, including US-postponed strikes on Iranian energy targets set for April 6 and potential ground operations before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$459,540 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
32%
UAE
22%
Bahrain
9%
Kuwait
7%
Qatar
7%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Jordan
6%
France
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
Germany
3%
UK
3%
Canada
1%
$459,540 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$71,571 Vol.
32%
UAE
$36,609 Vol.
22%
Bahrain
$780 Vol.
9%
Kuwait
$1,273 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$701 Vol.
7%
Any E.U. Country
$5,081 Vol.
6%
Jordan
$926 Vol.
6%
France
$148,533 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$14,987 Vol.
4%
Oman
$340 Vol.
4%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
UK
$103,183 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting airstrikes against Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and defense infrastructure, with March 29 reports detailing strikes on four key sites and 29 others amid a conflict now exceeding one month since late February. Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia wounded over a dozen troops, prompting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to consider direct strikes if energy facilities face further threats. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive actions targeting Iranian missile capabilities earlier in March. Traders weigh escalation risks against de-escalation signals, including US-postponed strikes on Iranian energy targets set for April 6 and potential ground operations before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$459,540End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting airstrikes against Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and defense infrastructure, with March 29 reports detailing strikes on four key sites and 29 others amid a conflict now exceeding one month since late February. Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia wounded over a dozen troops, prompting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to consider direct strikes if energy facilities face further threats. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive actions targeting Iranian missile capabilities earlier in March. Traders weigh escalation risks against de-escalation signals, including US-postponed strikes on Iranian energy targets set for April 6 and potential ground operations before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$459,540End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Israel remain the primary actors conducting airstrikes against Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and defense infrastructure, with March 29 reports detailing strikes on four key sites and 29 others amid a conflict now exceeding one month since late February. Iran's retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia wounded over a dozen troops, prompting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to consider direct strikes if energy facilities face further threats. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive actions targeting Iranian missile capabilities earlier in March. Traders weigh escalation risks against de-escalation signals, including US-postponed strikes on Iranian energy targets set for April 6 and potential ground operations before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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