US and Israel initiated the current war with Iran via massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—now on day 30 of sustained operations that have achieved air superiority over key areas. Over the past 48 hours, escalations include Iranian missile barrages igniting fires at Israeli sites, Houthi strikes on Israel, and US deployment of 3,500 troops aboard USS Tripoli amid precision strikes by CENTCOM. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz access, while UK, France, and Germany signal defensive actions against Iranian drones; Saudi Arabia and UAE weigh retaliation after absorbing hundreds of projectiles. Upcoming US ground operations or diplomatic shifts could expand participants before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$452,830 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
30%
UAE
23%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
France
5%
Any E.U. Country
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$452,830 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$65,609 Vol.
30%
UAE
$36,518 Vol.
23%
Bahrain
$724 Vol.
8%
Kuwait
$1,185 Vol.
7%
Jordan
$915 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$426 Vol.
6%
France
$148,440 Vol.
5%
Any E.U. Country
$5,048 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$14,950 Vol.
4%
Oman
$319 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,138 Vol.
3%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated the current war with Iran via massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—now on day 30 of sustained operations that have achieved air superiority over key areas. Over the past 48 hours, escalations include Iranian missile barrages igniting fires at Israeli sites, Houthi strikes on Israel, and US deployment of 3,500 troops aboard USS Tripoli amid precision strikes by CENTCOM. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz access, while UK, France, and Germany signal defensive actions against Iranian drones; Saudi Arabia and UAE weigh retaliation after absorbing hundreds of projectiles. Upcoming US ground operations or diplomatic shifts could expand participants before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$452,830End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated the current war with Iran via massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—now on day 30 of sustained operations that have achieved air superiority over key areas. Over the past 48 hours, escalations include Iranian missile barrages igniting fires at Israeli sites, Houthi strikes on Israel, and US deployment of 3,500 troops aboard USS Tripoli amid precision strikes by CENTCOM. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz access, while UK, France, and Germany signal defensive actions against Iranian drones; Saudi Arabia and UAE weigh retaliation after absorbing hundreds of projectiles. Upcoming US ground operations or diplomatic shifts could expand participants before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$452,830End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel initiated the current war with Iran via massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—now on day 30 of sustained operations that have achieved air superiority over key areas. Over the past 48 hours, escalations include Iranian missile barrages igniting fires at Israeli sites, Houthi strikes on Israel, and US deployment of 3,500 troops aboard USS Tripoli amid precision strikes by CENTCOM. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz access, while UK, France, and Germany signal defensive actions against Iranian drones; Saudi Arabia and UAE weigh retaliation after absorbing hundreds of projectiles. Upcoming US ground operations or diplomatic shifts could expand participants before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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