The United States and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with exchanges continuing as recently as overnight Israel-Iran airstrikes on March 29 amid IDF operations degrading Iran's missile production. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding service members—and Gulf allies like Bahrain and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have warned of retaliatory strikes should Iran target their energy infrastructure, while the UK, France, and Germany announced potential defensive actions against persistent Iranian launches. President Trump delayed U.S. strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, as 22 nations plan a multinational Strait of Hormuz security force, leaving trader consensus focused on whether Gulf escalation materializes before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$453,558 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
31%
UAE
22%
Bahrain
9%
Qatar
7%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Any E.U. Country
5%
France
5%
Turkey
5%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$453,558 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$65,951 Vol.
31%
UAE
$36,583 Vol.
22%
Bahrain
$780 Vol.
9%
Qatar
$608 Vol.
7%
Kuwait
$1,185 Vol.
7%
Jordan
$915 Vol.
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,054 Vol.
5%
France
$148,499 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$14,956 Vol.
5%
Oman
$319 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,151 Vol.
3%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with exchanges continuing as recently as overnight Israel-Iran airstrikes on March 29 amid IDF operations degrading Iran's missile production. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding service members—and Gulf allies like Bahrain and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have warned of retaliatory strikes should Iran target their energy infrastructure, while the UK, France, and Germany announced potential defensive actions against persistent Iranian launches. President Trump delayed U.S. strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, as 22 nations plan a multinational Strait of Hormuz security force, leaving trader consensus focused on whether Gulf escalation materializes before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$453,558End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with exchanges continuing as recently as overnight Israel-Iran airstrikes on March 29 amid IDF operations degrading Iran's missile production. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding service members—and Gulf allies like Bahrain and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have warned of retaliatory strikes should Iran target their energy infrastructure, while the UK, France, and Germany announced potential defensive actions against persistent Iranian launches. President Trump delayed U.S. strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, as 22 nations plan a multinational Strait of Hormuz security force, leaving trader consensus focused on whether Gulf escalation materializes before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$453,558End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, with exchanges continuing as recently as overnight Israel-Iran airstrikes on March 29 amid IDF operations degrading Iran's missile production. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding service members—and Gulf allies like Bahrain and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have warned of retaliatory strikes should Iran target their energy infrastructure, while the UK, France, and Germany announced potential defensive actions against persistent Iranian launches. President Trump delayed U.S. strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, as 22 nations plan a multinational Strait of Hormuz security force, leaving trader consensus focused on whether Gulf escalation materializes before April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions