Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants occupy the top two spots on the lmarena.ai Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On), with "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" at 1504 Elo and the base model at 1500, cementing 99.4% market-implied odds for Anthropic as the #2 AI model company by March 31. This positioning stems from leaderboard stability since the March 26 update, where ongoing user votes—over 12,000 per top model—have widened the gap to Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) without rank shifts. Style control emphasizes response substance over flair, suiting Claude's strengths in reasoning benchmarks. A surprise xAI Grok beta surge or OpenAI tweak before resolution remains the sole realistic upset vector, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 99.3%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$568,487 Vol.
$568,487 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 99.3%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$568,487 Vol.
$568,487 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants occupy the top two spots on the lmarena.ai Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On), with "claude-opus-4-6-thinking" at 1504 Elo and the base model at 1500, cementing 99.4% market-implied odds for Anthropic as the #2 AI model company by March 31. This positioning stems from leaderboard stability since the March 26 update, where ongoing user votes—over 12,000 per top model—have widened the gap to Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) without rank shifts. Style control emphasizes response substance over flair, suiting Claude's strengths in reasoning benchmarks. A surprise xAI Grok beta surge or OpenAI tweak before resolution remains the sole realistic upset vector, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions