Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 84%

xAI 5.2%

Google 4.3%

OpenAI 2.1%

Polymarket

$804,479 Vol.

Anthropic 84%

xAI 5.2%

Google 4.3%

OpenAI 2.1%

Polymarket

$804,479 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$21,142 Vol.

84%

Market icon

xAI

$129,820 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Google

$129,118 Vol.

4%

Market icon

OpenAI

$87,772 Vol.

2%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$223,832 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$60,601 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$26,678 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$8,210 Vol.

1%

Market icon

ByteDance

$8,228 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Amazon

$29,187 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$62,907 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$7,357 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Baidu

$9,629 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant current ranking—topping key benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks—following its February release and subsequent Sonnet 4.6 iteration. A March 27 data leak revealing Anthropic's "Mythos" model as a "step change" in capabilities further solidified sentiment, amid a March model avalanche where rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trail closely but lack confirmed April upgrades. xAI's 5% reflects Grok previews, while others fade on absent catalysts; watch for surprise releases or leaderboard volatility before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$804,479
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by April 30, driven primarily by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant current ranking—topping key benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks—following its February release and subsequent Sonnet 4.6 iteration. A March 27 data leak revealing Anthropic's "Mythos" model as a "step change" in capabilities further solidified sentiment, amid a March model avalanche where rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trail closely but lack confirmed April upgrades. xAI's 5% reflects Grok previews, while others fade on absent catalysts; watch for surprise releases or leaderboard volatility before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$804,479
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Related

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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

28%
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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

42%
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Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

99%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 84%, followed by "xAI" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" has generated $804.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "xAI" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.