Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on over 11,000 Iranian targets since late February 2026—including military and nuclear sites—Iran has launched more than 80 waves of missile and drone retaliation against US bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain. This drives trader consensus pricing Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City at 50% and Saudi Ras Tanura at 40% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting patterns of strikes on energy facilities hosting aggressors. Iranian spokespersons vow "crushing blows" to such sites while sparing neutrals like Oman, as US Marine and Airborne deployments signal potential ground escalation before resolution. Gulf states condemn attacks and prepare self-defense.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$71,323 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
39%
Al Zour Refinery
38%
Ras Tanura
30%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
29%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
22%
Safaniya Field
20%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$71,323 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,516 Vol.
39%
Al Zour Refinery
$1,277 Vol.
38%
Ras Tanura
$6,628 Vol.
30%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$5,692 Vol.
29%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$10,133 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$6,596 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$882 Vol.
22%
Safaniya Field
$2,177 Vol.
20%
East–West Pipeline
$4,979 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,360 Vol.
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$2,334 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,601 Vol.
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,767 Vol.
10%
Burj Khalifa
$380 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on over 11,000 Iranian targets since late February 2026—including military and nuclear sites—Iran has launched more than 80 waves of missile and drone retaliation against US bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain. This drives trader consensus pricing Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City at 50% and Saudi Ras Tanura at 40% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting patterns of strikes on energy facilities hosting aggressors. Iranian spokespersons vow "crushing blows" to such sites while sparing neutrals like Oman, as US Marine and Airborne deployments signal potential ground escalation before resolution. Gulf states condemn attacks and prepare self-defense.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$71,323End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on over 11,000 Iranian targets since late February 2026—including military and nuclear sites—Iran has launched more than 80 waves of missile and drone retaliation against US bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain. This drives trader consensus pricing Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City at 50% and Saudi Ras Tanura at 40% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting patterns of strikes on energy facilities hosting aggressors. Iranian spokespersons vow "crushing blows" to such sites while sparing neutrals like Oman, as US Marine and Airborne deployments signal potential ground escalation before resolution. Gulf states condemn attacks and prepare self-defense.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$71,323End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on over 11,000 Iranian targets since late February 2026—including military and nuclear sites—Iran has launched more than 80 waves of missile and drone retaliation against US bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain. This drives trader consensus pricing Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City at 50% and Saudi Ras Tanura at 40% for Iranian military action by April 30, reflecting patterns of strikes on energy facilities hosting aggressors. Iranian spokespersons vow "crushing blows" to such sites while sparing neutrals like Oman, as US Marine and Airborne deployments signal potential ground escalation before resolution. Gulf states condemn attacks and prepare self-defense.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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