Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, sparked by joint US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating despite diplomatic efforts. Last week, the Trump administration transmitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistani intermediaries—demanding Iran's nuclear program dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—which Tehran dismissed as "maximalist and unreasonable," countering with its own terms amid persistent missile exchanges and attacks on Israel and Gulf states. In the past 48 hours, President Trump reiterated conditional openness to a truce if Hormuz access resumes, while claiming Iran's leadership sought talks, as US forces bolstered Middle East deployments with 3,500 Marines on alert. Mediation by Oman and Egypt continues, but mutual rejections and escalating strikes sustain trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$83,356,083 Vol.
April 7
2%
April 15
8%
April 30
22%
May 31
42%
June 30
58%
December 31
70%
$83,356,083 Vol.
April 7
$7,215,496 Vol.
2%
April 15
$11,584,444 Vol.
8%
April 30
$9,700,721 Vol.
22%
May 31
$3,260,518 Vol.
42%
June 30
$2,876,222 Vol.
58%
December 31
$951,502 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, sparked by joint US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating despite diplomatic efforts. Last week, the Trump administration transmitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistani intermediaries—demanding Iran's nuclear program dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—which Tehran dismissed as "maximalist and unreasonable," countering with its own terms amid persistent missile exchanges and attacks on Israel and Gulf states. In the past 48 hours, President Trump reiterated conditional openness to a truce if Hormuz access resumes, while claiming Iran's leadership sought talks, as US forces bolstered Middle East deployments with 3,500 Marines on alert. Mediation by Oman and Egypt continues, but mutual rejections and escalating strikes sustain trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$83,356,083Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, sparked by joint US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating despite diplomatic efforts. Last week, the Trump administration transmitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistani intermediaries—demanding Iran's nuclear program dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—which Tehran dismissed as "maximalist and unreasonable," countering with its own terms amid persistent missile exchanges and attacks on Israel and Gulf states. In the past 48 hours, President Trump reiterated conditional openness to a truce if Hormuz access resumes, while claiming Iran's leadership sought talks, as US forces bolstered Middle East deployments with 3,500 Marines on alert. Mediation by Oman and Egypt continues, but mutual rejections and escalating strikes sustain trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$83,356,083Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, sparked by joint US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, 2026, show no signs of abating despite diplomatic efforts. Last week, the Trump administration transmitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistani intermediaries—demanding Iran's nuclear program dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and Strait of Hormuz reopening—which Tehran dismissed as "maximalist and unreasonable," countering with its own terms amid persistent missile exchanges and attacks on Israel and Gulf states. In the past 48 hours, President Trump reiterated conditional openness to a truce if Hormuz access resumes, while claiming Iran's leadership sought talks, as US forces bolstered Middle East deployments with 3,500 Marines on alert. Mediation by Oman and Egypt continues, but mutual rejections and escalating strikes sustain trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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