Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

$1,070,645 Vol.

<1% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Volume
$1,070,645
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Sep 23, 2024, 7:46 PM

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$1,070,645 Vol.

Market icon

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

<1% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Volume
$1,070,645
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Sep 23, 2024, 7:46 PM

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No