Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.2% for the Kurdistan Regional Government declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the KRG's firm commitment to its autonomous status within Iraq's federal structure, reinforced by the 2017 independence referendum's fallout—including territorial losses like Kirkuk and economic isolation—that deterred further separatist moves. Absent any announcements, referendums, or official statements from KRG leaders in Erbil in the past 30 days, amid focus on Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September 2026 and resumed oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the short 13-day window leaves no viable path. During the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis, KRG officials reiterated non-involvement and de-escalation. Only an extraordinary catalyst, such as Baghdad's sudden collapse or major regional realignment, could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
$44,013 Vol.
$44,013 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$44,013 Vol.
$44,013 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.2% for the Kurdistan Regional Government declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the KRG's firm commitment to its autonomous status within Iraq's federal structure, reinforced by the 2017 independence referendum's fallout—including territorial losses like Kirkuk and economic isolation—that deterred further separatist moves. Absent any announcements, referendums, or official statements from KRG leaders in Erbil in the past 30 days, amid focus on Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September 2026 and resumed oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the short 13-day window leaves no viable path. During the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis, KRG officials reiterated non-involvement and de-escalation. Only an extraordinary catalyst, such as Baghdad's sudden collapse or major regional realignment, could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$44,013End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.2% for the Kurdistan Regional Government declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the KRG's firm commitment to its autonomous status within Iraq's federal structure, reinforced by the 2017 independence referendum's fallout—including territorial losses like Kirkuk and economic isolation—that deterred further separatist moves. Absent any announcements, referendums, or official statements from KRG leaders in Erbil in the past 30 days, amid focus on Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September 2026 and resumed oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the short 13-day window leaves no viable path. During the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis, KRG officials reiterated non-involvement and de-escalation. Only an extraordinary catalyst, such as Baghdad's sudden collapse or major regional realignment, could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,013End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.2% for the Kurdistan Regional Government declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the KRG's firm commitment to its autonomous status within Iraq's federal structure, reinforced by the 2017 independence referendum's fallout—including territorial losses like Kirkuk and economic isolation—that deterred further separatist moves. Absent any announcements, referendums, or official statements from KRG leaders in Erbil in the past 30 days, amid focus on Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September 2026 and resumed oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the short 13-day window leaves no viable path. During the ongoing 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis, KRG officials reiterated non-involvement and de-escalation. Only an extraordinary catalyst, such as Baghdad's sudden collapse or major regional realignment, could shift odds, though such scenarios remain remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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