The high trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any active referendum plans, formal statements, or legislative steps from Kurdish leaders toward secession. Iraq’s federal government maintains firm opposition to any unilateral move, consistent with the 2017 referendum’s aftermath, when Baghdad reasserted control over disputed territories including Kirkuk and imposed revenue restrictions. Regional actors such as Turkey and Iran continue to prioritize Iraq’s territorial integrity, while the KRG remains engaged in routine negotiations over budget shares, oil exports, and security cooperation with Baghdad. Internal Kurdish politics, including post-2024 election cabinet formation delays between major parties, further divert focus from sovereignty questions. No scheduled votes, diplomatic breakthroughs, or escalatory events in 2025–2026 have altered these structural constraints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКРГ объявит независимость от Ирака к 31 декабря?
КРГ объявит независимость от Ирака к 31 декабря?
Да
$94,376 Объем
$94,376 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$94,376 Объем
$94,376 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any active referendum plans, formal statements, or legislative steps from Kurdish leaders toward secession. Iraq’s federal government maintains firm opposition to any unilateral move, consistent with the 2017 referendum’s aftermath, when Baghdad reasserted control over disputed territories including Kirkuk and imposed revenue restrictions. Regional actors such as Turkey and Iran continue to prioritize Iraq’s territorial integrity, while the KRG remains engaged in routine negotiations over budget shares, oil exports, and security cooperation with Baghdad. Internal Kurdish politics, including post-2024 election cabinet formation delays between major parties, further divert focus from sovereignty questions. No scheduled votes, diplomatic breakthroughs, or escalatory events in 2025–2026 have altered these structural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$94,376Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any active referendum plans, formal statements, or legislative steps from Kurdish leaders toward secession. Iraq’s federal government maintains firm opposition to any unilateral move, consistent with the 2017 referendum’s aftermath, when Baghdad reasserted control over disputed territories including Kirkuk and imposed revenue restrictions. Regional actors such as Turkey and Iran continue to prioritize Iraq’s territorial integrity, while the KRG remains engaged in routine negotiations over budget shares, oil exports, and security cooperation with Baghdad. Internal Kurdish politics, including post-2024 election cabinet formation delays between major parties, further divert focus from sovereignty questions. No scheduled votes, diplomatic breakthroughs, or escalatory events in 2025–2026 have altered these structural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$94,376Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any active referendum plans, formal statements, or legislative steps from Kurdish leaders toward secession. Iraq’s federal government maintains firm opposition to any unilateral move, consistent with the 2017 referendum’s aftermath, when Baghdad reasserted control over disputed territories including Kirkuk and imposed revenue restrictions. Regional actors such as Turkey and Iran continue to prioritize Iraq’s territorial integrity, while the KRG remains engaged in routine negotiations over budget shares, oil exports, and security cooperation with Baghdad. Internal Kurdish politics, including post-2024 election cabinet formation delays between major parties, further divert focus from sovereignty questions. No scheduled votes, diplomatic breakthroughs, or escalatory events in 2025–2026 have altered these structural constraints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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