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U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Name: U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?
Start: 2026-01-31T00:25:14.067Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Iraq

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Mar 31

$328,508 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

March 31

$273,785 Vol.

April 30

$732 Vol.

30%

$328,508 Vol.

March 31

$273,785 Vol.

April 30

$732 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Trader consensus on U.S. embassy evacuation from Baghdad tilts heavily against near-term outcomes, driven by the absence of State Department orders despite persistent Iran-backed militia attacks on American positions in Iraq and Syria. Over 190 such incidents have occurred since October 2023, met with U.S. retaliatory strikes—including recent hits on Kataib Hezbollah facilities—yet embassy operations continue with enhanced security and no non-essential staff drawdowns, unlike in Lebanon. Escalation risks persist from Israel-Iran tensions, but U.S.-Iraq bilateral talks aim for orderly troop reductions by 2025. Monitor militia rhetoric and Washington diplomatic signals for shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 25, 2026, 2:39 PM UTC

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

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16%

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 30%, followed by "March 31" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" has generated $328.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" is "April 30" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $328.5K traded on “U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 30¢ for "April 30" in the "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 30% chance that "April 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 30¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 70¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?" market has an active community of 16 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

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Comments (16)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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