Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.5% for "No" on a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any formal White House, State Department, or Department of Defense statement despite early March reports of President Trump's outreach to Kurdish leaders offering potential air cover. Subsequent Trump remarks on Air Force One explicitly downplayed Kurdish involvement, prioritizing airstrikes, sanctions, and Israeli coordination amid risks of broader proxy war, Turkish backlash, and Iranian regime fragmentation. With the deadline days away and no escalatory signals like new executive actions or IRGC crackdowns prompting reversal, odds remain locked; only unforeseen diplomacy breakdowns or late-breaking attacks could prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
$471,999 Vol.
$471,999 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$471,999 Vol.
$471,999 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.5% for "No" on a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any formal White House, State Department, or Department of Defense statement despite early March reports of President Trump's outreach to Kurdish leaders offering potential air cover. Subsequent Trump remarks on Air Force One explicitly downplayed Kurdish involvement, prioritizing airstrikes, sanctions, and Israeli coordination amid risks of broader proxy war, Turkish backlash, and Iranian regime fragmentation. With the deadline days away and no escalatory signals like new executive actions or IRGC crackdowns prompting reversal, odds remain locked; only unforeseen diplomacy breakdowns or late-breaking attacks could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$471,999End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.5% for "No" on a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any formal White House, State Department, or Department of Defense statement despite early March reports of President Trump's outreach to Kurdish leaders offering potential air cover. Subsequent Trump remarks on Air Force One explicitly downplayed Kurdish involvement, prioritizing airstrikes, sanctions, and Israeli coordination amid risks of broader proxy war, Turkish backlash, and Iranian regime fragmentation. With the deadline days away and no escalatory signals like new executive actions or IRGC crackdowns prompting reversal, odds remain locked; only unforeseen diplomacy breakdowns or late-breaking attacks could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$471,999End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.5% for "No" on a US official announcement of military support for Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any formal White House, State Department, or Department of Defense statement despite early March reports of President Trump's outreach to Kurdish leaders offering potential air cover. Subsequent Trump remarks on Air Force One explicitly downplayed Kurdish involvement, prioritizing airstrikes, sanctions, and Israeli coordination amid risks of broader proxy war, Turkish backlash, and Iranian regime fragmentation. With the deadline days away and no escalatory signals like new executive actions or IRGC crackdowns prompting reversal, odds remain locked; only unforeseen diplomacy breakdowns or late-breaking attacks could prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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