James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas Senate by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the general election challenger against the Republican victor. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff with Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither reached 50% on primary night, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing. Trader consensus implies Paxton holds a strong edge in the runoff—driven by his appeal to the Republican base, pre-primary polls showing him ahead of Cornyn, and the senator's vulnerabilities from intraparty attacks—setting up Talarico-Paxton as the likely November 3 matchup, though Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising keep him competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTexas Senate Election Matchup
Texas Senate Election Matchup
Talarico & Paxton 64%
Talarico & Cornyn 33%
Other <1%
Crockett & Paxton <1%
$646,423 Vol.
$646,423 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
64%
Talarico & Cornyn
33%
Other
1%
Crockett & Paxton
1%
Crockett & Cornyn
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Hunt
<1%
Talarico & Paxton 64%
Talarico & Cornyn 33%
Other <1%
Crockett & Paxton <1%
$646,423 Vol.
$646,423 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
$241,179 Vol.
64%
Talarico & Cornyn
$165,846 Vol.
33%
Other
$26,364 Vol.
1%
Crockett & Paxton
$103,836 Vol.
1%
Crockett & Cornyn
$64,035 Vol.
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
$22,572 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Hunt
$22,592 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas Senate by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the general election challenger against the Republican victor. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff with Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither reached 50% on primary night, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing. Trader consensus implies Paxton holds a strong edge in the runoff—driven by his appeal to the Republican base, pre-primary polls showing him ahead of Cornyn, and the senator's vulnerabilities from intraparty attacks—setting up Talarico-Paxton as the likely November 3 matchup, though Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising keep him competitive.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$646,423End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas Senate by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the general election challenger against the Republican victor. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff with Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither reached 50% on primary night, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing. Trader consensus implies Paxton holds a strong edge in the runoff—driven by his appeal to the Republican base, pre-primary polls showing him ahead of Cornyn, and the senator's vulnerabilities from intraparty attacks—setting up Talarico-Paxton as the likely November 3 matchup, though Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising keep him competitive.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$646,423End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas Senate by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the general election challenger against the Republican victor. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff with Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither reached 50% on primary night, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing. Trader consensus implies Paxton holds a strong edge in the runoff—driven by his appeal to the Republican base, pre-primary polls showing him ahead of Cornyn, and the senator's vulnerabilities from intraparty attacks—setting up Talarico-Paxton as the likely November 3 matchup, though Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising keep him competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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