Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will not normalize by April 30, anchored by Iran's "toll booth" control four weeks into the US-Iran conflict following late-February strikes. Daily vessel transits have collapsed over 90% from the typical 130–150 to single digits—often AIS-dark or selective, as shown in MarineTraffic timelapses through March 26 and just one visible crossing in the past 24 hours at 0.7% of normal. Surging war-risk insurance premiums and absent de-escalation amid ongoing hostilities underpin this positioning, with rare exceptions like a Saudi crude shipment hugging Iran's coast on March 29. Resolution hinges on ceasefire progress or escalation risks before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,489,354 Vol.
$1,489,354 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$1,489,354 Vol.
$1,489,354 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will not normalize by April 30, anchored by Iran's "toll booth" control four weeks into the US-Iran conflict following late-February strikes. Daily vessel transits have collapsed over 90% from the typical 130–150 to single digits—often AIS-dark or selective, as shown in MarineTraffic timelapses through March 26 and just one visible crossing in the past 24 hours at 0.7% of normal. Surging war-risk insurance premiums and absent de-escalation amid ongoing hostilities underpin this positioning, with rare exceptions like a Saudi crude shipment hugging Iran's coast on March 29. Resolution hinges on ceasefire progress or escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,489,354End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will not normalize by April 30, anchored by Iran's "toll booth" control four weeks into the US-Iran conflict following late-February strikes. Daily vessel transits have collapsed over 90% from the typical 130–150 to single digits—often AIS-dark or selective, as shown in MarineTraffic timelapses through March 26 and just one visible crossing in the past 24 hours at 0.7% of normal. Surging war-risk insurance premiums and absent de-escalation amid ongoing hostilities underpin this positioning, with rare exceptions like a Saudi crude shipment hugging Iran's coast on March 29. Resolution hinges on ceasefire progress or escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,489,354End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will not normalize by April 30, anchored by Iran's "toll booth" control four weeks into the US-Iran conflict following late-February strikes. Daily vessel transits have collapsed over 90% from the typical 130–150 to single digits—often AIS-dark or selective, as shown in MarineTraffic timelapses through March 26 and just one visible crossing in the past 24 hours at 0.7% of normal. Surging war-risk insurance premiums and absent de-escalation amid ongoing hostilities underpin this positioning, with rare exceptions like a Saudi crude shipment hugging Iran's coast on March 29. Resolution hinges on ceasefire progress or escalation risks before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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