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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$485,671,202 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$485,671,202 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,738,010 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,548,636 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,119,861 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,846,137 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,219,053 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,556,339 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,650,402 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,813,411 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,918,691 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,276,457 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,222,728 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,944,883 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,614,294 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,865,236 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,078,917 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,126,864 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$8,973,837 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,859,046 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,796,134 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,108,641 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,020,941 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,894,044 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,209,090 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,767,552 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,302,972 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,166,085 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,509,114 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,581,353 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,665,745 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,599,097 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,504,607 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,886,170 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,813,728 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,436,226 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,039,044 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from polls like JL Partners where Vance leads Republicans 53%-14%. Recent reports of GOP donors overwhelmingly preferring Rubio over Vance—prompted by President Trump amid escalating Iran tensions—have lifted Rubio's odds to an all-time high while Vance's fell to a new low below 37%, fueled by his signals of possibly skipping a run due to isolationist views clashing with administration hawkishness. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile cabinet role and Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to primary voters, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the post-Trump field.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from polls like JL Partners where Vance leads Republicans 53%-14%. Recent reports of GOP donors overwhelmingly preferring Rubio over Vance—prompted by President Trump amid escalating Iran tensions—have lifted Rubio's odds to an all-time high while Vance's fell to a new low below 37%, fueled by his signals of possibly skipping a run due to isolationist views clashing with administration hawkishness. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile cabinet role and Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to primary voters, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the post-Trump field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from polls like JL Partners where Vance leads Republicans 53%-14%. Recent reports of GOP donors overwhelmingly preferring Rubio over Vance—prompted by President Trump amid escalating Iran tensions—have lifted Rubio's odds to an all-time high while Vance's fell to a new low below 37%, fueled by his signals of possibly skipping a run due to isolationist views clashing with administration hawkishness. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile cabinet role and Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to primary voters, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the post-Trump field.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from polls like JL Partners where Vance leads Republicans 53%-14%. Recent reports of GOP donors overwhelmingly preferring Rubio over Vance—prompted by President Trump amid escalating Iran tensions—have lifted Rubio's odds to an all-time high while Vance's fell to a new low below 37%, fueled by his signals of possibly skipping a run due to isolationist views clashing with administration hawkishness. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile cabinet role and Make America Healthy Again movement's appeal to primary voters, with 2026 midterms poised to clarify the post-Trump field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $485.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.