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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$482,477,659 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$482,477,659 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,711,860 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,529,814 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,097,310 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,781,768 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,206,674 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,804,394 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,639,982 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,506,349 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$15,907,067 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,260,762 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,850,110 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,598,248 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,846,383 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,065,340 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,111,018 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,831,946 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$8,872,263 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,079,220 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,815,531 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,757,083 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$3,775,302 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,866,179 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,425,211 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,176,873 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,719,399 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,265,611 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,118,150 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,528,390 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,645,925 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,456,465 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,425,804 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,574,884 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,636,442 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$9,711,360 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$31,879,148 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his prominent role as HHS Secretary and the enduring appeal of his Make America Healthy Again agenda to the GOP populist base, despite fresh Senate Republican resistance emerging over the past day to aspects of his health policy push. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 37%, positioned as the natural heir apparent under term-limited President Trump, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has climbed amid reports of Trump privately polling donors and advisers on Vance versus Rubio preferences—many favoring Rubio for his foreign policy handling, including recent Iran tensions—and early "draft Rubio" efforts by GOP megadonors. Midterm outcomes and administration performance will likely intensify this three-way contest.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his prominent role as HHS Secretary and the enduring appeal of his Make America Healthy Again agenda to the GOP populist base, despite fresh Senate Republican resistance emerging over the past day to aspects of his health policy push. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 37%, positioned as the natural heir apparent under term-limited President Trump, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has climbed amid reports of Trump privately polling donors and advisers on Vance versus Rubio preferences—many favoring Rubio for his foreign policy handling, including recent Iran tensions—and early "draft Rubio" efforts by GOP megadonors. Midterm outcomes and administration performance will likely intensify this three-way contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his prominent role as HHS Secretary and the enduring appeal of his Make America Healthy Again agenda to the GOP populist base, despite fresh Senate Republican resistance emerging over the past day to aspects of his health policy push. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 37%, positioned as the natural heir apparent under term-limited President Trump, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has climbed amid reports of Trump privately polling donors and advisers on Vance versus Rubio preferences—many favoring Rubio for his foreign policy handling, including recent Iran tensions—and early "draft Rubio" efforts by GOP megadonors. Midterm outcomes and administration performance will likely intensify this three-way contest.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his prominent role as HHS Secretary and the enduring appeal of his Make America Healthy Again agenda to the GOP populist base, despite fresh Senate Republican resistance emerging over the past day to aspects of his health policy push. Vice President J.D. Vance trails closely at 37%, positioned as the natural heir apparent under term-limited President Trump, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has climbed amid reports of Trump privately polling donors and advisers on Vance versus Rubio preferences—many favoring Rubio for his foreign policy handling, including recent Iran tensions—and early "draft Rubio" efforts by GOP megadonors. Midterm outcomes and administration performance will likely intensify this three-way contest.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $482.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.