Recent polls from the past week showing Democratic candidates leading in key Republican-held battlegrounds—Maine, Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire—alongside a national Marist generic congressional ballot advantage for Democrats, have tightened trader consensus on Republican Senate control to a closely contested implied probability near even odds. This volatility, diverging from January Cook Political Report ratings that list only four tossups amid a GOP-favorable map (22 Republican-defended seats including Ohio and Florida specials versus 13 Democratic), prevents underlying odds from hitting extremes like 70% or higher by March 31. Multiple retirements yielding open seats in Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, and elsewhere, plus March primaries nominating candidates in Arkansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Illinois, heighten uncertainty ahead of May runoffs and the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRepublican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?
Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?
$519,025 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
↑ 90%
<1%
↑ 80%
<1%
↑ 75%
<1%
↑ 70%
<1%
↓ 40%
<1%
$519,025 Vol.
↑ 90%
$9,038 Vol.
<1%
↑ 80%
$71,341 Vol.
<1%
↑ 75%
$114,045 Vol.
<1%
↑ 70%
$25,453 Vol.
<1%
↓ 40%
$276,413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-80-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-75-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-70-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-40-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-60-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-55-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-50-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.Recent polls from the past week showing Democratic candidates leading in key Republican-held battlegrounds—Maine, Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire—alongside a national Marist generic congressional ballot advantage for Democrats, have tightened trader consensus on Republican Senate control to a closely contested implied probability near even odds. This volatility, diverging from January Cook Political Report ratings that list only four tossups amid a GOP-favorable map (22 Republican-defended seats including Ohio and Florida specials versus 13 Democratic), prevents underlying odds from hitting extremes like 70% or higher by March 31. Multiple retirements yielding open seats in Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, and elsewhere, plus March primaries nominating candidates in Arkansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Illinois, heighten uncertainty ahead of May runoffs and the November 3 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$519,025End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-80-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-75-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-70-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-40-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-60-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-55-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-50-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.Recent polls from the past week showing Democratic candidates leading in key Republican-held battlegrounds—Maine, Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire—alongside a national Marist generic congressional ballot advantage for Democrats, have tightened trader consensus on Republican Senate control to a closely contested implied probability near even odds. This volatility, diverging from January Cook Political Report ratings that list only four tossups amid a GOP-favorable map (22 Republican-defended seats including Ohio and Florida specials versus 13 Democratic), prevents underlying odds from hitting extremes like 70% or higher by March 31. Multiple retirements yielding open seats in Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, and elsewhere, plus March primaries nominating candidates in Arkansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Illinois, heighten uncertainty ahead of May runoffs and the November 3 election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.
The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-90-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Volume
$519,025End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from the past week showing Democratic candidates leading in key Republican-held battlegrounds—Maine, Alaska, North Carolina, and New Hampshire—alongside a national Marist generic congressional ballot advantage for Democrats, have tightened trader consensus on Republican Senate control to a closely contested implied probability near even odds. This volatility, diverging from January Cook Political Report ratings that list only four tossups amid a GOP-favorable map (22 Republican-defended seats including Ohio and Florida specials versus 13 Democratic), prevents underlying odds from hitting extremes like 70% or higher by March 31. Multiple retirements yielding open seats in Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, and elsewhere, plus March primaries nominating candidates in Arkansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Illinois, heighten uncertainty ahead of May runoffs and the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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