Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a moderate profile and strong fundraising edge in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering Bucks County that leans slightly Republican by registration. Traders assign him a 62% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026 general election against Democratic challenger and Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie. Recent polling shows a competitive race, with some surveys placing the candidates in a statistical tie and others giving Fitzpatrick a modest lead. Harvie has focused attacks on local concerns such as data center development and affordability, while Fitzpatrick emphasizes bipartisanship and ratepayer protections. Analyst ratings classify the contest as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,171 Vol.
$12,171 Vol.
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
62%
Bob Harvie (D)
38%
$12,171 Vol.
$12,171 Vol.
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
62%
Bob Harvie (D)
38%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2f5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick holds a moderate profile and strong fundraising edge in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering Bucks County that leans slightly Republican by registration. Traders assign him a 62% implied probability of winning the November 3, 2026 general election against Democratic challenger and Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie. Recent polling shows a competitive race, with some surveys placing the candidates in a statistical tie and others giving Fitzpatrick a modest lead. Harvie has focused attacks on local concerns such as data center development and affordability, while Fitzpatrick emphasizes bipartisanship and ratepayer protections. Analyst ratings classify the contest as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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