Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 24.5% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, closely trailed by Édouard Philippe at 20.5%, reflecting polls showing the National Rally leader's sustained lead amid post-snap election fragmentation from July 2024, where no party secured a majority. Philippe gains traction as a centrist-right alternative, bolstered by his former prime ministerial role and Horizons party positioning ahead of Emmanuel Macron's term limit barring re-election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 9.5% and Marine Le Pen's 8.5% trail due to left-wing divisions and Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial verdict pending in late 2025. The tight race persists from ongoing coalition negotiation failures and no-confidence votes toppling Michel Barnier's government in early December 2024, now under François Bayrou's fragile minority administration; separation could arise from upcoming EU policy clashes, primary outcomes, or scandal developments shifting voter blocs in this proportional representation-influenced first-round dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,181,444 Vol.
$19,181,444 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

David Lisnard
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,181,444 Vol.
$19,181,444 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

David Lisnard
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 24.5% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, closely trailed by Édouard Philippe at 20.5%, reflecting polls showing the National Rally leader's sustained lead amid post-snap election fragmentation from July 2024, where no party secured a majority. Philippe gains traction as a centrist-right alternative, bolstered by his former prime ministerial role and Horizons party positioning ahead of Emmanuel Macron's term limit barring re-election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 9.5% and Marine Le Pen's 8.5% trail due to left-wing divisions and Le Pen's ongoing embezzlement trial verdict pending in late 2025. The tight race persists from ongoing coalition negotiation failures and no-confidence votes toppling Michel Barnier's government in early December 2024, now under François Bayrou's fragile minority administration; separation could arise from upcoming EU policy clashes, primary outcomes, or scandal developments shifting voter blocs in this proportional representation-influenced first-round dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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