Trader consensus implies an 88.5% probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, anchored by the absence of de-escalation signals after U.S. and allied airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15—the largest operation to date amid ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions. Iranian officials have issued fresh warnings against direct strikes on their territory, while U.S. statements emphasize sustained defensive operations without timelines for withdrawal or ceasefire. No diplomatic breakthroughs, such as Oman-mediated talks, have materialized in the past week to prompt an end, leaving specific end dates like March 29 (3.4%) or earlier as low-probability outliers. Upcoming Houthi responses or escalation signals could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through March 31 89%
March 29 3.3%
March 31 3.0%
March 30 2.1%
$2,483,194 Vol.
$2,483,194 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
1%
March 29
3%
March 30
2%
March 31
3%
Military action through March 31
89%
Military action through March 31 89%
March 29 3.3%
March 31 3.0%
March 30 2.1%
$2,483,194 Vol.
$2,483,194 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
$324,523 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$300,613 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$300,377 Vol.
1%
March 29
$253,711 Vol.
3%
March 30
$272,874 Vol.
2%
March 31
$356,217 Vol.
3%
Military action through March 31
$542,280 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies an 88.5% probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, anchored by the absence of de-escalation signals after U.S. and allied airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15—the largest operation to date amid ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions. Iranian officials have issued fresh warnings against direct strikes on their territory, while U.S. statements emphasize sustained defensive operations without timelines for withdrawal or ceasefire. No diplomatic breakthroughs, such as Oman-mediated talks, have materialized in the past week to prompt an end, leaving specific end dates like March 29 (3.4%) or earlier as low-probability outliers. Upcoming Houthi responses or escalation signals could shift odds further.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,483,194End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies an 88.5% probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, anchored by the absence of de-escalation signals after U.S. and allied airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15—the largest operation to date amid ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions. Iranian officials have issued fresh warnings against direct strikes on their territory, while U.S. statements emphasize sustained defensive operations without timelines for withdrawal or ceasefire. No diplomatic breakthroughs, such as Oman-mediated talks, have materialized in the past week to prompt an end, leaving specific end dates like March 29 (3.4%) or earlier as low-probability outliers. Upcoming Houthi responses or escalation signals could shift odds further.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,483,194End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus implies an 88.5% probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, anchored by the absence of de-escalation signals after U.S. and allied airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen on March 15—the largest operation to date amid ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions. Iranian officials have issued fresh warnings against direct strikes on their territory, while U.S. statements emphasize sustained defensive operations without timelines for withdrawal or ceasefire. No diplomatic breakthroughs, such as Oman-mediated talks, have materialized in the past week to prompt an end, leaving specific end dates like March 29 (3.4%) or earlier as low-probability outliers. Upcoming Houthi responses or escalation signals could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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