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Geopolitics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Jun 30

Jun 30

3% chance
Polymarket

$14,364 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$14,364 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.1% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition KMT and TPP's inability to secure the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) in the Legislative Yuan, where they hold only 60 seats combined against DPP's solid 51-seat bloc. The motion, initiated in December 2025 over Lai's refusal to sign a revised fiscal allocation law amid accusations of constitutional violations, advanced through public hearings in January 2026 but remains symbolic, with a scheduled vote on May 19 unlikely to pass absent DPP defections or unforeseen scandals. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched partisan divide, though late-breaking legal challenges or health events could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$14,364
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.1% implied probability for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30, driven by the opposition KMT and TPP's inability to secure the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) in the Legislative Yuan, where they hold only 60 seats combined against DPP's solid 51-seat bloc. The motion, initiated in December 2025 over Lai's refusal to sign a revised fiscal allocation law amid accusations of constitutional violations, advanced through public hearings in January 2026 but remains symbolic, with a scheduled vote on May 19 unlikely to pass absent DPP defections or unforeseen scandals. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched partisan divide, though late-breaking legal challenges or health events could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$14,364
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" has generated $14.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.