Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including intense bombing in Tehran and Isfahan reported hours ago, have prompted Iranian missile barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions fired as recently as March 24 to target populated areas. Iran also struck US positions, injuring troops, while issuing fresh threats against American forces in the region and demands to end the war that erupted late February with Operation Roaring Lion. Tehran allowed oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture amid President Trump's push for talks and extended deadlines on energy strikes. Traders weigh persistent escalation risks versus negotiation prospects before the April 30 resolution, with historical proxy patterns underscoring Iran's direct retaliation incentives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$87,743 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
93%
Kuwait
91%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Oman
21%
Syria
29%
Turkey
10%
Azerbaijan
10%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
6%
UK
5%
India
5%
Georgia
4%
Poland
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Spain
2%
Ukraine
2%
Armenia
2%
$87,743 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,656 Vol.
97%
UAE
$544 Vol.
93%
Kuwait
$823 Vol.
91%
Qatar
$276 Vol.
60%
Iraq
$235 Vol.
42%
Lebanon
$795 Vol.
31%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
21%
Oman
$434 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
10%
Azerbaijan
$523 Vol.
10%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$91 Vol.
6%
UK
$1,583 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,285 Vol.
4%
Germany
$3,883 Vol.
3%
Italy
$100 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$1,569 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including intense bombing in Tehran and Isfahan reported hours ago, have prompted Iranian missile barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions fired as recently as March 24 to target populated areas. Iran also struck US positions, injuring troops, while issuing fresh threats against American forces in the region and demands to end the war that erupted late February with Operation Roaring Lion. Tehran allowed oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture amid President Trump's push for talks and extended deadlines on energy strikes. Traders weigh persistent escalation risks versus negotiation prospects before the April 30 resolution, with historical proxy patterns underscoring Iran's direct retaliation incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$87,743End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including intense bombing in Tehran and Isfahan reported hours ago, have prompted Iranian missile barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions fired as recently as March 24 to target populated areas. Iran also struck US positions, injuring troops, while issuing fresh threats against American forces in the region and demands to end the war that erupted late February with Operation Roaring Lion. Tehran allowed oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture amid President Trump's push for talks and extended deadlines on energy strikes. Traders weigh persistent escalation risks versus negotiation prospects before the April 30 resolution, with historical proxy patterns underscoring Iran's direct retaliation incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$87,743End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, including intense bombing in Tehran and Isfahan reported hours ago, have prompted Iranian missile barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions fired as recently as March 24 to target populated areas. Iran also struck US positions, injuring troops, while issuing fresh threats against American forces in the region and demands to end the war that erupted late February with Operation Roaring Lion. Tehran allowed oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture amid President Trump's push for talks and extended deadlines on energy strikes. Traders weigh persistent escalation risks versus negotiation prospects before the April 30 resolution, with historical proxy patterns underscoring Iran's direct retaliation incentives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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