Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports tallying around 246 year-to-date by late March—highlighted by March's surge of 178 tornadoes amid outbreaks in Illinois (43 confirmed), Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Lingering La Niña conditions through spring have boosted atmospheric instability, with ample Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE), and veering wind shear fostering supercell development. This pace exceeds historical January-March averages (~150-200), positioning traders above the 1991-2020 annual baseline of ~1,200 tornadoes despite recent variability (e.g., 2024's elevated activity). Uncertainties remain in preliminary-to-confirmed adjustments and peak April-June patterns; monitor SPC convective outlooks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 41%
<950 18%
1000–1049 15%
950–999 14.9%
$13,509 Vol.
$13,509 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
18%
950–999
15%
1000–1049
15%
1050–1099
18%
1100–1149
12%
1150–1199
11%
1200–1249
14%
1250+
41%
1250+ 41%
<950 18%
1000–1049 15%
950–999 14.9%
$13,509 Vol.
$13,509 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$0 Vol.
18%
950–999
$0 Vol.
15%
1000–1049
$0 Vol.
15%
1050–1099
$0 Vol.
18%
1100–1149
$0 Vol.
12%
1150–1199
$0 Vol.
11%
1200–1249
$13,509 Vol.
14%
1250+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports tallying around 246 year-to-date by late March—highlighted by March's surge of 178 tornadoes amid outbreaks in Illinois (43 confirmed), Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Lingering La Niña conditions through spring have boosted atmospheric instability, with ample Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE), and veering wind shear fostering supercell development. This pace exceeds historical January-March averages (~150-200), positioning traders above the 1991-2020 annual baseline of ~1,200 tornadoes despite recent variability (e.g., 2024's elevated activity). Uncertainties remain in preliminary-to-confirmed adjustments and peak April-June patterns; monitor SPC convective outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$13,509End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports tallying around 246 year-to-date by late March—highlighted by March's surge of 178 tornadoes amid outbreaks in Illinois (43 confirmed), Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Lingering La Niña conditions through spring have boosted atmospheric instability, with ample Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE), and veering wind shear fostering supercell development. This pace exceeds historical January-March averages (~150-200), positioning traders above the 1991-2020 annual baseline of ~1,200 tornadoes despite recent variability (e.g., 2024's elevated activity). Uncertainties remain in preliminary-to-confirmed adjustments and peak April-June patterns; monitor SPC convective outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$13,509End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 40.5% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center preliminary reports tallying around 246 year-to-date by late March—highlighted by March's surge of 178 tornadoes amid outbreaks in Illinois (43 confirmed), Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Lingering La Niña conditions through spring have boosted atmospheric instability, with ample Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE), and veering wind shear fostering supercell development. This pace exceeds historical January-March averages (~150-200), positioning traders above the 1991-2020 annual baseline of ~1,200 tornadoes despite recent variability (e.g., 2024's elevated activity). Uncertainties remain in preliminary-to-confirmed adjustments and peak April-June patterns; monitor SPC convective outlooks for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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