Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3 (75 bps) 26%

2 (50 bps) 24%

4 (100 bps) 15%

1 (25 bps) 14%

$3,954,684 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$3,954,684
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3 (75 bps) 26%

2 (50 bps) 24%

4 (100 bps) 15%

1 (25 bps) 14%

$3,954,684 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$677,598 Vol.

7%

1 (25 bps)

$341,527 Vol.

14%

2 (50 bps)

$337,835 Vol.

24%

3 (75 bps)

$249,710 Vol.

26%

4 (100 bps)

$220,460 Vol.

15%

5 (125 bps)

$232,464 Vol.

6%

6 (150 bps)

$285,821 Vol.

4%

7 (175 bps)

$237,369 Vol.

2%

8 (200 bps)

$312,442 Vol.

2%

9 (225 bps)

$238,686 Vol.

1%

10 (250 bps)

$252,450 Vol.

1%

11 (275 bps)

$275,258 Vol.

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$293,066 Vol.

2%

About

Volume
$3,954,684
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

75%
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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

90%
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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

30%

Beware of external links.