Polymarket traders price a 33.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—edging out 24.5% for one 25 basis point cut—reflecting hawkish sentiment after the March 18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median still eyeing just one cut by year-end amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, stoking inflation fears and offsetting softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment at 4.4%, creating a tight contest where upcoming April CPI/PCE data and May FOMC could tip the balance toward fewer easing moves versus resilient labor market signals. CME FedWatch concurs, showing near-certainty of no April change, underscoring trader consensus on prolonged higher-for-longer policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated0 (0 bps) 33.7%
1 (25 bps) 25%
2 (50 bps) 19%
3 (75 bps) 10%
$14,985,492 Vol.
$14,985,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
34%
1 (25 bps)
25%
2 (50 bps)
19%
3 (75 bps)
10%
4 (100 bps)
6%
5 (125 bps)
2%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
1%
8 (200 bps)
1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 33.7%
1 (25 bps) 25%
2 (50 bps) 19%
3 (75 bps) 10%
$14,985,492 Vol.
$14,985,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,645,833 Vol.
34%
1 (25 bps)
$876,017 Vol.
25%
2 (50 bps)
$816,895 Vol.
19%
3 (75 bps)
$792,170 Vol.
10%
4 (100 bps)
$799,655 Vol.
6%
5 (125 bps)
$838,269 Vol.
2%
6 (150 bps)
$1,852,835 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$775,841 Vol.
1%
8 (200 bps)
$985,798 Vol.
1%
9 (225 bps)
$746,164 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$1,185,175 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,087,371 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,583,910 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 33.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—edging out 24.5% for one 25 basis point cut—reflecting hawkish sentiment after the March 18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median still eyeing just one cut by year-end amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, stoking inflation fears and offsetting softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment at 4.4%, creating a tight contest where upcoming April CPI/PCE data and May FOMC could tip the balance toward fewer easing moves versus resilient labor market signals. CME FedWatch concurs, showing near-certainty of no April change, underscoring trader consensus on prolonged higher-for-longer policy.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$14,985,492End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 33.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—edging out 24.5% for one 25 basis point cut—reflecting hawkish sentiment after the March 18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median still eyeing just one cut by year-end amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, stoking inflation fears and offsetting softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment at 4.4%, creating a tight contest where upcoming April CPI/PCE data and May FOMC could tip the balance toward fewer easing moves versus resilient labor market signals. CME FedWatch concurs, showing near-certainty of no April change, underscoring trader consensus on prolonged higher-for-longer policy.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$14,985,492End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 33.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—edging out 24.5% for one 25 basis point cut—reflecting hawkish sentiment after the March 18 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median still eyeing just one cut by year-end amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, stoking inflation fears and offsetting softer February nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment at 4.4%, creating a tight contest where upcoming April CPI/PCE data and May FOMC could tip the balance toward fewer easing moves versus resilient labor market signals. CME FedWatch concurs, showing near-certainty of no April change, underscoring trader consensus on prolonged higher-for-longer policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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