President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a second-term low near 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of mid-May 2026, reflecting widespread disapproval of the Iran war—escalated since late February—and economic pressures including 50% higher gas prices at $4.30 per gallon and rising inflation, with even Republican support eroding on these issues. This marks a sharp decline from earlier 2026 highs, driving Polymarket trader consensus toward a modest peak, with high implied probabilities for reaching 47% or higher (yes shares near 89¢) but steep drops for 48% (8¢) or above amid midterm pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term expiration this month, potential Iran diplomatic breakthroughs like Trump-Xi talks, and November midterm generic ballot trends that could amplify or mitigate incumbency challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 44%
11%
↑ 45%
11%
↑ 46%
14%
↑ 47%
46%
↑ 48%
5%
↑ 49%
10%
↑ 50%
3%
$4,837 Vol.
↑ 44%
$2,703 Vol.
11%
↑ 45%
$137 Vol.
11%
↑ 46%
$721 Vol.
14%
↑ 47%
$0 Vol.
46%
↑ 48%
$392 Vol.
5%
↑ 49%
$0 Vol.
10%
↑ 50%
$885 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a second-term low near 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of mid-May 2026, reflecting widespread disapproval of the Iran war—escalated since late February—and economic pressures including 50% higher gas prices at $4.30 per gallon and rising inflation, with even Republican support eroding on these issues. This marks a sharp decline from earlier 2026 highs, driving Polymarket trader consensus toward a modest peak, with high implied probabilities for reaching 47% or higher (yes shares near 89¢) but steep drops for 48% (8¢) or above amid midterm pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term expiration this month, potential Iran diplomatic breakthroughs like Trump-Xi talks, and November midterm generic ballot trends that could amplify or mitigate incumbency challenges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$4,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a second-term low near 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of mid-May 2026, reflecting widespread disapproval of the Iran war—escalated since late February—and economic pressures including 50% higher gas prices at $4.30 per gallon and rising inflation, with even Republican support eroding on these issues. This marks a sharp decline from earlier 2026 highs, driving Polymarket trader consensus toward a modest peak, with high implied probabilities for reaching 47% or higher (yes shares near 89¢) but steep drops for 48% (8¢) or above amid midterm pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term expiration this month, potential Iran diplomatic breakthroughs like Trump-Xi talks, and November midterm generic ballot trends that could amplify or mitigate incumbency challenges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$4,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a second-term low near 38% in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of mid-May 2026, reflecting widespread disapproval of the Iran war—escalated since late February—and economic pressures including 50% higher gas prices at $4.30 per gallon and rising inflation, with even Republican support eroding on these issues. This marks a sharp decline from earlier 2026 highs, driving Polymarket trader consensus toward a modest peak, with high implied probabilities for reaching 47% or higher (yes shares near 89¢) but steep drops for 48% (8¢) or above amid midterm pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term expiration this month, potential Iran diplomatic breakthroughs like Trump-Xi talks, and November midterm generic ballot trends that could amplify or mitigate incumbency challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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