President Trump's approval rating has declined to near-record lows for his second term, averaging 37-41% approve versus 57-62% disapprove in major polls as of mid-April 2026, reflecting trader focus on the peak it might reach by year-end. Key drivers include the ongoing Iran war—sparked earlier this year—which remains unpopular and prompted a two-week ceasefire announcement on April 7 without rebounding sentiment, alongside new lows in economic approval amid persistent inflation, tariffs, immigration challenges, and job concerns. Recent Quinnipiac, CNN, and UMass polls confirm a post-January drop even among Republicans. With 2026 midterms looming in November, upcoming economic data releases, potential war resolutions, or policy shifts on border security could catalyze shifts, though historical precedents show limited recovery for presidents below 45% heading into midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 44%
15%
↑ 45%
13%
↑ 46%
9%
↑ 47%
5%
↑ 48%
4%
↑ 49%
4%
↑ 50%
5%
$3,431 Vol.
↑ 44%
$2,571 Vol.
15%
↑ 45%
$0 Vol.
13%
↑ 46%
$523 Vol.
9%
↑ 47%
$0 Vol.
5%
↑ 48%
$337 Vol.
4%
↑ 49%
$0 Vol.
4%
↑ 50%
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has declined to near-record lows for his second term, averaging 37-41% approve versus 57-62% disapprove in major polls as of mid-April 2026, reflecting trader focus on the peak it might reach by year-end. Key drivers include the ongoing Iran war—sparked earlier this year—which remains unpopular and prompted a two-week ceasefire announcement on April 7 without rebounding sentiment, alongside new lows in economic approval amid persistent inflation, tariffs, immigration challenges, and job concerns. Recent Quinnipiac, CNN, and UMass polls confirm a post-January drop even among Republicans. With 2026 midterms looming in November, upcoming economic data releases, potential war resolutions, or policy shifts on border security could catalyze shifts, though historical precedents show limited recovery for presidents below 45% heading into midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$3,431End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Trump's approval rating has declined to near-record lows for his second term, averaging 37-41% approve versus 57-62% disapprove in major polls as of mid-April 2026, reflecting trader focus on the peak it might reach by year-end. Key drivers include the ongoing Iran war—sparked earlier this year—which remains unpopular and prompted a two-week ceasefire announcement on April 7 without rebounding sentiment, alongside new lows in economic approval amid persistent inflation, tariffs, immigration challenges, and job concerns. Recent Quinnipiac, CNN, and UMass polls confirm a post-January drop even among Republicans. With 2026 midterms looming in November, upcoming economic data releases, potential war resolutions, or policy shifts on border security could catalyze shifts, though historical precedents show limited recovery for presidents below 45% heading into midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$3,431End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's approval rating has declined to near-record lows for his second term, averaging 37-41% approve versus 57-62% disapprove in major polls as of mid-April 2026, reflecting trader focus on the peak it might reach by year-end. Key drivers include the ongoing Iran war—sparked earlier this year—which remains unpopular and prompted a two-week ceasefire announcement on April 7 without rebounding sentiment, alongside new lows in economic approval amid persistent inflation, tariffs, immigration challenges, and job concerns. Recent Quinnipiac, CNN, and UMass polls confirm a post-January drop even among Republicans. With 2026 midterms looming in November, upcoming economic data releases, potential war resolutions, or policy shifts on border security could catalyze shifts, though historical precedents show limited recovery for presidents below 45% heading into midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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