Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 86%
February 14 2.9%
February 11 2.5%
February 5 2.4%
$44,915 Vol.
$44,915 Vol.
February 2
$3,698 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$3,698 Vol.
<1%
February 3
$1,439 Vol.
1%
February 3
$1,439 Vol.
1%
February 4
$1,073 Vol.
2%
February 4
$1,073 Vol.
2%
February 5
$1,091 Vol.
2%
February 5
$1,091 Vol.
2%
February 6
$915 Vol.
1%
February 6
$915 Vol.
1%
February 7
$1,322 Vol.
2%
February 7
$1,322 Vol.
2%
February 8
$1,116 Vol.
2%
February 8
$1,116 Vol.
2%
February 9
$908 Vol.
2%
February 9
$908 Vol.
2%
February 10
$990 Vol.
2%
February 10
$990 Vol.
2%
February 11
$1,034 Vol.
3%
February 11
$1,034 Vol.
3%
February 12
$1,293 Vol.
1%
February 12
$1,293 Vol.
1%
February 13
$1,015 Vol.
2%
February 13
$1,015 Vol.
2%
February 14
$1,358 Vol.
3%
February 14
$1,358 Vol.
3%
No release by February 14
$10,147 Vol.
86%
No release by February 14
$10,147 Vol.
86%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 28, 2026, 10:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 86%
February 14 2.9%
February 11 2.5%
February 5 2.4%
$44,915 Vol.
$44,915 Vol.
February 2
<1%
February 3
1%
February 4
2%
February 5
2%
February 6
1%
February 7
2%
February 8
2%
February 9
2%
February 10
2%
February 11
3%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
3%
No release by February 14
86%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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