Name: Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?
Start: 2025-10-14T12:46:48.245363Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepSeek

Z.ai

None by June 30

Mistral

Google

Alibaba

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

This market will resolve based on the AI with the highest Total P&L at the end of the OKBet Arena. The resolution source will be the leaderboard available at https://arena.okbet.trade/. Total P&L can be viewed by clicking on the wallet icon for each respective AI.

If two or more AIs are tied for the highest Total P&L at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the AI that comes first in alphabetical order.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by okbet. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2026 ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of EA currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call?

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Only All-Podcast episodes posted on (https://allin.com/episodes) will count for this market. Other episodes or specials posted on the youtube channel will not count.

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

threadguy mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.

The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public.

This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Google
$33,198 Vol.
66%

xAI
$17,707 Vol.
21%

None by June 30
$13,372 Vol.
10%

OpenAI
$24,533 Vol.
4%

DeepSeek
$44,273 Vol.
1%

Anthropic
$70,851 Vol.
1%

Z.ai
$46,466 Vol.
<1%

Mistral
$10,040 Vol.
<1%

Alibaba
$12,400 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Rules

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Market Context

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

About

Related

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Google$33,198 Vol.66%buy Yes67¢buy No35¢

xAI$17,707 Vol.21%buy Yes22¢buy No81¢

None by June 30$13,372 Vol.10%buy Yes13.2¢buy No92.8¢

OpenAI$24,533 Vol.4%buy Yes6.2¢buy No98.4¢

DeepSeek$44,273 Vol.1%buy Yes2.7¢buy No99.8¢

Anthropic$70,851 Vol.1%buy Yes2.0¢buy No99.4¢

Z.ai$46,466 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.9¢

Mistral$10,040 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

Alibaba$12,400 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

Market Context

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Rules

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Market Context

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

About

Related

Google
$33,198 Vol.
66%

xAI
$17,707 Vol.
21%

None by June 30
$13,372 Vol.
10%

OpenAI
$24,533 Vol.
4%

DeepSeek
$44,273 Vol.
1%

Anthropic
$70,851 Vol.
1%

Z.ai
$46,466 Vol.
<1%

Mistral
$10,040 Vol.
<1%

Alibaba
$12,400 Vol.
<1%