Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voter index, strongly favors incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Steven Lichtenstein, driving trader consensus to 84% for the Republican Party outcome. Bean won his 2022 contest by 30 points, and no recent polls or developments—such as shifts in early voting turnout or fundraising—have narrowed the gap in the past 30 days, maintaining the district's reliable GOP hold amid Florida's broader Republican lean. With early voting ongoing and Election Day on November 5, any upset would require a dramatic swing in battleground state dynamics or national trends, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voter index, strongly favors incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Steven Lichtenstein, driving trader consensus to 84% for the Republican Party outcome. Bean won his 2022 contest by 30 points, and no recent polls or developments—such as shifts in early voting turnout or fundraising—have narrowed the gap in the past 30 days, maintaining the district's reliable GOP hold amid Florida's broader Republican lean. With early voting ongoing and Election Day on November 5, any upset would require a dramatic swing in battleground state dynamics or national trends, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voter index, strongly favors incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Steven Lichtenstein, driving trader consensus to 84% for the Republican Party outcome. Bean won his 2022 contest by 30 points, and no recent polls or developments—such as shifts in early voting turnout or fundraising—have narrowed the gap in the past 30 days, maintaining the district's reliable GOP hold amid Florida's broader Republican lean. With early voting ongoing and Election Day on November 5, any upset would require a dramatic swing in battleground state dynamics or national trends, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voter index, strongly favors incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean (R) seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Steven Lichtenstein, driving trader consensus to 84% for the Republican Party outcome. Bean won his 2022 contest by 30 points, and no recent polls or developments—such as shifts in early voting turnout or fundraising—have narrowed the gap in the past 30 days, maintaining the district's reliable GOP hold amid Florida's broader Republican lean. With early voting ongoing and Election Day on November 5, any upset would require a dramatic swing in battleground state dynamics or national trends, though historical incumbent re-election rates exceed 90% in safe seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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