Name: Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?
Start: 2025-12-04T00:00:51.590568Z
End: 2025-12-10T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-20-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>20%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-40-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>40%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-25-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>25%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in January?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) is priced over the listed value between 2:00 PM ET and 5:59 PM ET on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-jan-25bps-cut-over-30-on-december-10 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

>30%

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for '25 bps decrease' in the "Fed decision in December?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december?tid=1764689490935) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for '25 bps decrease' in the “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/fed-derivative-25bps-cut-below-90-by-december-5 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" Below 90% by December 5?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between “No Change” and “25 bps decrease”, “No Change” becomes the favorite in the Dec 10, 2025 Fed decision market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december) for any 4 hour period ending December 9, 2025, 11:59PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“No Change” will be considered to have become the favorite for a four hour period if it is ahead of “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” in more individual minutes than “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” is ahead of “No Change” during the period.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on Federivative (https://federivative.polymarket.com/) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on Federivative with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the Fed decision in January? market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) during the specified period.

This market will resolve to “25 bps cut" if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "25 bps decrease" is the favorite during that period.

The favorite will be determined by examining the four-hour window between 2 PM and 6 PM on December 10, 2025.

This market will resolve to whichever of  "No change" or "25 bps decrease" is ahead in more individual minutes during this window.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "50-50".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. If a listed option resolves “Yes,” this market will resolve immediately in favor of the corresponding market. Accordingly, if a listed option resolves “No,” this market will resolve in favor of the other option. If both options simultaneously resolve in the same direction, such as in the case of a negrisk market in which another option resolves “Yes”, this market will resolve 50-50. 

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/no-change-or-25-bps-decrease-favored-for-fed-decision-in-january-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'December 31' in the "US x Venezuela military engagement by...?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?tid=1764682726361) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'December 31' in the “US x Venezuela military engagement by...?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-in-2025-over-50-by-friday or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Over 50% by Friday?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'December 31, 2025' in the "Maduro out by...?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-out-in-2025?tid=1764693458625) is priced over the listed value for any three-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'December 31, 2025' in the “Maduro out by...?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-maduro-out-in-2025-under-15-by-friday or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the three-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Odds of Maduro out in 2025 Under 15% by Friday?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Fed cuts twice
- Trump announces someone as next Fed Chair
- Powell says “Trump” during October Press Conference
- Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p3.png


Nothing Ever Happens:  Jerome Powell Edition

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on December 10, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by December 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of FedEx currently scheduled to take place on December 18, 2025 at 4:30 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will FedEx say "Dividend" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Gavin Newsom' in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1764680585562) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-over-45-by-december-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.


Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 45% by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-25-by-march-31-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

>40%
$2,293 Vol.
6%

>30%
$2,147 Vol.
21%

>25%
$1,253 Vol.
42%

>20%
$928 Vol.
68%

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Rules

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

About

Related

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

>40%$2,293 Vol.6%buy Yes7¢buy No96¢

>30%$2,147 Vol.21%buy Yes22¢buy No80¢

>25%$1,253 Vol.42%buy Yes42¢buy No59¢

>20%$928 Vol.68%buy Yes69¢buy No33¢

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Rules

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

Market Context

Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" Odds on December 10?

About

Related

>40%
$2,293 Vol.
6%

>30%
$2,147 Vol.
21%

>25%
$1,253 Vol.
42%

>20%
$928 Vol.
68%