Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price shocks from the Iran war, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted increased uncertainty from geopolitical fallout, with the economy slipping between baseline and adverse scenarios, as services and food inflation accelerate. Banks including JPMorgan now project hikes starting June, citing persistent pressures despite downward growth revisions to 0.9% for 2026. Traders' 67.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift ahead of the April 29-30 policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$95,162 Vol.
$95,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$95,162 Vol.
$95,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price shocks from the Iran war, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted increased uncertainty from geopolitical fallout, with the economy slipping between baseline and adverse scenarios, as services and food inflation accelerate. Banks including JPMorgan now project hikes starting June, citing persistent pressures despite downward growth revisions to 0.9% for 2026. Traders' 67.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift ahead of the April 29-30 policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,162End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price shocks from the Iran war, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted increased uncertainty from geopolitical fallout, with the economy slipping between baseline and adverse scenarios, as services and food inflation accelerate. Banks including JPMorgan now project hikes starting June, citing persistent pressures despite downward growth revisions to 0.9% for 2026. Traders' 67.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift ahead of the April 29-30 policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$95,162End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price shocks from the Iran war, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted increased uncertainty from geopolitical fallout, with the economy slipping between baseline and adverse scenarios, as services and food inflation accelerate. Banks including JPMorgan now project hikes starting June, citing persistent pressures despite downward growth revisions to 0.9% for 2026. Traders' 67.5% implied probability for a 2026 rate hike reflects this hawkish shift ahead of the April 29-30 policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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