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Economy·BOE

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Market icon
Economy·BOE

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

55% chance
Polymarket

$18,848 Vol.

55% chance
Polymarket

$18,848 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by the Middle East conflict—particularly tensions involving Iran—sparking a surge in global energy prices that has reversed prior disinflation trends. UK CPI held at 3.0% through February 2026, with core inflation ticking up to 3.2%, while the March MPC unanimously maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% but flagged near-term inflationary pressures from this exogenous shock. Despite softening wage growth at 3.8% and unemployment rising to 5.2%, alongside flat January GDP, overnight indexed swap curves now price around 60-80 basis points of hikes by year-end, up sharply from cut expectations weeks ago. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 22 and the April 30 MPC meeting, which could solidify or temper this hawkish repricing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,848
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike sometime in 2026, driven primarily by the Middle East conflict—particularly tensions involving Iran—sparking a surge in global energy prices that has reversed prior disinflation trends. UK CPI held at 3.0% through February 2026, with core inflation ticking up to 3.2%, while the March MPC unanimously maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% but flagged near-term inflationary pressures from this exogenous shock. Despite softening wage growth at 3.8% and unemployment rising to 5.2%, alongside flat January GDP, overnight indexed swap curves now price around 60-80 basis points of hikes by year-end, up sharply from cut expectations weeks ago. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 22 and the April 30 MPC meeting, which could solidify or temper this hawkish repricing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,848
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of England rate hike in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 56% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 56¢, the market collectively assigns a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of England rate hike in 2026?" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of England rate hike in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Bank of England rate hike in 2026?" is 56% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Bank of England rate hike in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.